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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DEVELOPING
AND NO CIN SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DEVELOPING
AND NO CIN SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010817
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OHIO. LEFT A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO
BE DENSE WITH 4-7 KNOTS OF WIND. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TODAY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST BY A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY...RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 80S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE PRETTY GOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS OVERHEAD.   HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WHERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT
INSTEAD OF GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA WITH STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010525
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010525
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 312312
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 312312
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 310433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 310254
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE SHOWERS CAN EXPAND. THE BEST GUESS AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST. I DOUBT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN GET TO TOLEDO BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. RAIDED
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
IN GENERAL FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 310254
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE SHOWERS CAN EXPAND. THE BEST GUESS AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST. I DOUBT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN GET TO TOLEDO BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. RAIDED
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
IN GENERAL FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON









000
FXUS61 KCLE 302320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292247
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291744
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








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