Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB










000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A FEW VALLEYS IN EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SOON. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A FEW VALLEYS IN EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SOON. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1039 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ012-013-022-
     023-033-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-
     011-020-021-031-032-038.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1039 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ012-013-022-
     023-033-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-
     011-020-021-031-032-038.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWPOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212058
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212058
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOW IS BECOMING WEST SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
ITS ORIENTATION TO WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DECREASING
AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORKS IN. AT MOST AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNOWBELT. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS UP BASED ON NOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOW IS BECOMING WEST SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
ITS ORIENTATION TO WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DECREASING
AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORKS IN. AT MOST AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNOWBELT. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS UP BASED ON NOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1203 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1203 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC











000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211459
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211459
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AND END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 211107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AND END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 210949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
449 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AND END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

IN THE MEANTIME A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND STRETCHING FROM THE ISLANDS
ACROSS NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CUYAHOGA...AND INTO NORTHERN SUMMIT COUNTY HAD PROMPTED LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. AT 2 AM
THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THAT BAND.
RECENTLY THE BAND HAS WEAKENED AND LOST ITS CONNECTION BACK AS
FAR AS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS. REALLY NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ010.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 210949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
449 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AND END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

IN THE MEANTIME A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND STRETCHING FROM THE ISLANDS
ACROSS NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CUYAHOGA...AND INTO NORTHERN SUMMIT COUNTY HAD PROMPTED LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. AT 2 AM
THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THAT BAND.
RECENTLY THE BAND HAS WEAKENED AND LOST ITS CONNECTION BACK AS
FAR AS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS. REALLY NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ010.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 210428
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1128 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE ALLOWED THE INTENSE PRIMARY SNOW BAND OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE
INLAND AND BREAK UP INTO A MORE MULTI-BAND STRUCTURE. AS WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION A SNOW BAND MAY
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM THE
ISLANDS INTO LORAIN COUNTY TO NORTHERN SUMMIT AS HINTED BY THE
HRRR MODEL. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSILBE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210428
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1128 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE ALLOWED THE INTENSE PRIMARY SNOW BAND OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE
INLAND AND BREAK UP INTO A MORE MULTI-BAND STRUCTURE. AS WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION A SNOW BAND MAY
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM THE
ISLANDS INTO LORAIN COUNTY TO NORTHERN SUMMIT AS HINTED BY THE
HRRR MODEL. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSILBE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 210335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE ALLOWED THE INTENSE PRIMARY SNOW BAND OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE
INLAND AND BREAK UP INTO A MORE MULTI-BAND STRUCTURE. AS WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION A SNOW BAND MAY
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM THE
ISLANDS INTO LORAIN COUNTY TO NORTHERN SUMMIT AS HINTED BY THE
HRRR MODEL. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 210335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE ALLOWED THE INTENSE PRIMARY SNOW BAND OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE
INLAND AND BREAK UP INTO A MORE MULTI-BAND STRUCTURE. AS WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION A SNOW BAND MAY
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM THE
ISLANDS INTO LORAIN COUNTY TO NORTHERN SUMMIT AS HINTED BY THE
HRRR MODEL. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210020
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

FROM 22Z TO 00Z THE LAKE SNOW BANDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEGUN TO VEER WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SNOW
BANDS TO COME ASHORE OVER NW PA AND THE SNOW BELT NE OF CLE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATION THUS FAR. LES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED ABOUT 5C IN PLACES WHICH SOMEWHAT CORRESPONDS WITH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN THE 30-35 DBZ RANGE. WITH SUNSET THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW BANDS TO
BECOME MORE UNIFORM. KCLE RADAR HOURLY SNOW ACCUMULATION INTENSITY
HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY INTO ASHTABULA HAVING RATES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES PER
HOUR. THESE RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ACARS SOUNDINGS NEAR CLE SHOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHT FROM 6500 TO 7000 FT WHILE THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING HAS THE
UPSTREAM INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 7300 FT. THIS INVERSION HEIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ALTER THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECAST MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210020
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

FROM 22Z TO 00Z THE LAKE SNOW BANDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEGUN TO VEER WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SNOW
BANDS TO COME ASHORE OVER NW PA AND THE SNOW BELT NE OF CLE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATION THUS FAR. LES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED ABOUT 5C IN PLACES WHICH SOMEWHAT CORRESPONDS WITH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN THE 30-35 DBZ RANGE. WITH SUNSET THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW BANDS TO
BECOME MORE UNIFORM. KCLE RADAR HOURLY SNOW ACCUMULATION INTENSITY
HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY INTO ASHTABULA HAVING RATES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES PER
HOUR. THESE RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ACARS SOUNDINGS NEAR CLE SHOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHT FROM 6500 TO 7000 FT WHILE THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING HAS THE
UPSTREAM INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 7300 FT. THIS INVERSION HEIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ALTER THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECAST MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 202019
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST STILL ON
TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE IN
RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 202019
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST STILL ON
TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE IN
RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.

IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1210 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED ASHTABULA TO THE WARNING AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND -POSSIBLY- TAKE MUCH OF THE NORTH OFFSHORE...
WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BRINGING THE SNOW BACK ONSHORE. BELIEVE ASHTABULA WILL BE INTO THE
BAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN GO MORE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD ALSO INVOLVE LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY IN SNOW
ALTHO FOR LESS TIME AND THUS AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND DECREASED CLOUDS WEST AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC











000
FXUS61 KCLE 201710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1210 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED ASHTABULA TO THE WARNING AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND -POSSIBLY- TAKE MUCH OF THE NORTH OFFSHORE...
WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BRINGING THE SNOW BACK ONSHORE. BELIEVE ASHTABULA WILL BE INTO THE
BAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN GO MORE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD ALSO INVOLVE LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY IN SNOW
ALTHO FOR LESS TIME AND THUS AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND DECREASED CLOUDS WEST AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC












000
FXUS61 KCLE 201659
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1159 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201659
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1159 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201516
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1016 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED ASHTABULA TO THE WARNING AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND -POSSIBLY- TAKE MUCH OF THE NORTH OFFSHORE...
WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BRINGING THE SNOW BACK ONSHORE. BELIEVE ASHTABULA WILL BE INTO THE
BAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN GO MORE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD ALSO INVOLVE LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY IN SNOW
ALTHO FOR LESS TIME AND THUS AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND DECREASED CLOUDS WEST AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201516
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1016 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED ASHTABULA TO THE WARNING AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND -POSSIBLY- TAKE MUCH OF THE NORTH OFFSHORE...
WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BRINGING THE SNOW BACK ONSHORE. BELIEVE ASHTABULA WILL BE INTO THE
BAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN GO MORE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD ALSO INVOLVE LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY IN SNOW
ALTHO FOR LESS TIME AND THUS AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND DECREASED CLOUDS WEST AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
SOME THIS ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE
INTENSE BAND INLAND LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL BE ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
ERIE COUNTY VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201210
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201210
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE. SNOW
ALREADY ONGOING AT ERI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR THE
SHORELINE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN
COME CRASHING BACK ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS 23Z-04Z AND PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
ALSO ARRIVE AT CLE THIS EVENING AND BE MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT YNG TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF
4-5K FEET EXPECTED...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT FOR INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201019
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
519 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 200440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF A CLEVELAND MANSFIELD LINE. COLDER AIR
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES IN THE WEST AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST REMAINING. FLOW IS BECOMING WELL ALIGNED UP
THE LAKE ON THE WEST END AND THIS SHOULD SEND A BAND OF SNOW UP
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST OHIO WILL STILL SEE THE
THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES STILL ON TARGET TOWARD CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF TOMORROW
THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY
ON THE LAKE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TO ENHANCE THE LIFT.  BANDS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. ERIE COULD POTENTIALLY
PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
EXTENDING WEST TO CLEVELAND. THAT ALL SAID WENT WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR ASHTABULA AND NW PA FOR NOW...MAY NEED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE 850MB RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE SHORELINE
FRIDAY MORNING. LUCKILY BY THEN THE MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE 850MB RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SUNDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER MO/AR. DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE GLFMX WILL BE STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  GIVEN THE SOUTH FLOW...EXPECT
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL (50ISH) BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROP TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.  WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW
MIXED MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE WEST.  TUESDAY
EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL TREND OR AT BEST MINIMAL RISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  THROUGH THE DAY 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-12C SO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO GET GOING AGAIN.  BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER IT GETS ONSHORE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST YES BUT
TIMING IS DIFFERENT.  FOR NOW WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSILBE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IT IS.  WATER LEVELS
ON THE WESTERN BASIN ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL
HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THEY MAY DROP TO OR BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL.
WILL MENTION IN THE MWW BUT NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON
SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ARKANSAS TO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 200440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF A CLEVELAND MANSFIELD LINE. COLDER AIR
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES IN THE WEST AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST REMAINING. FLOW IS BECOMING WELL ALIGNED UP
THE LAKE ON THE WEST END AND THIS SHOULD SEND A BAND OF SNOW UP
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST OHIO WILL STILL SEE THE
THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES STILL ON TARGET TOWARD CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF TOMORROW
THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY
ON THE LAKE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TO ENHANCE THE LIFT.  BANDS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. ERIE COULD POTENTIALLY
PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
EXTENDING WEST TO CLEVELAND. THAT ALL SAID WENT WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR ASHTABULA AND NW PA FOR NOW...MAY NEED AN ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE 850MB RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE SHORELINE
FRIDAY MORNING. LUCKILY BY THEN THE MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE 850MB RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SUNDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER MO/AR. DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE GLFMX WILL BE STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  GIVEN THE SOUTH FLOW...EXPECT
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL (50ISH) BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROP TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.  WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW
MIXED MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE WEST.  TUESDAY
EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL TREND OR AT BEST MINIMAL RISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  THROUGH THE DAY 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-12C SO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO GET GOING AGAIN.  BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER IT GETS ONSHORE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST YES BUT
TIMING IS DIFFERENT.  FOR NOW WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSILBE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IT IS.  WATER LEVELS
ON THE WESTERN BASIN ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL
HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THEY MAY DROP TO OR BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL.
WILL MENTION IN THE MWW BUT NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON
SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ARKANSAS TO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities