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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021443
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE WEST. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE HEATING FROM THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.

ANY LOCATION THAT HAS CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES
THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 10 AM SHOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. SKIES OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL START OFF AS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THEN SOME CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 021141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 10 AM SHOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. SKIES OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL START OFF AS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THEN SOME CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 021102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA
COUNTY EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 021102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA
COUNTY EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS












000
FXUS61 KCLE 021102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA
COUNTY EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 021102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA
COUNTY EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS












000
FXUS61 KCLE 020916 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
410 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATE.

THE QPF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER NE
OH AND NW PA. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
SNOW. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME RUNOFF.
AT THIS TIME THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BE LIKELY. WITH EVERYTHING BEING BRIEF NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ICE JAM ISSUES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
ABOUT THAT OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
EVENTUALLY PLUNGING TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
COLDER ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 020916 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
410 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATE.

THE QPF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER NE
OH AND NW PA. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
SNOW. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME RUNOFF.
AT THIS TIME THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BE LIKELY. WITH EVERYTHING BEING BRIEF NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ICE JAM ISSUES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
ABOUT THAT OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
EVENTUALLY PLUNGING TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
COLDER ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 020916 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
410 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATE.

THE QPF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER NE
OH AND NW PA. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
SNOW. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME RUNOFF.
AT THIS TIME THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BE LIKELY. WITH EVERYTHING BEING BRIEF NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ICE JAM ISSUES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
ABOUT THAT OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
EVENTUALLY PLUNGING TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
COLDER ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 020901
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 020901
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 020901
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NW OH AND NE OH AND NW PA WITH
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EAST. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. USED A
BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 020532
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. WAITING FOR SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO GET INTO EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 020532
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. WAITING FOR SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO GET INTO EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 020441
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST...IFR CIGS EAST
AND A PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN FOG WHEN IT GOES BY. TO
BEGIN...THE MVFR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS
EXTENDS BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE
HOLE FILLING IN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF EXPECTING THE IFR TO WAFFLE UP TO MVFR AND
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY SO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. KCAK AND KYNG
HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 012339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 012339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 012339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 012339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 012243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
543 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 012243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
543 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FROM LORAIN TO KNOX COUNTY. SNOW DIMINISHING
FURTHER EAST AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKE BY CUT SHORT TOO. WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS THE MODERATE SNOW
ENDS. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LONG. NOTHING
OCCURRING UPSTREAM EITHER. NO MENTION.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 012055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED SOME HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW THAT ARE NOW LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO. THIS AREA IS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS NW OHIO FOR NOW BUT THERE STILL IS
SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS NW
OHIO SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. THE 00Z END
TIME ACROSS THE WEST IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. EASTERN AREAS
WILL KEEP THE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE EVENING. WE DID PULL
THE END TIME OF THE EAST ADVISORY TO 09Z AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT
WAY. BESIDES NW PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 012055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED SOME HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW THAT ARE NOW LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO. THIS AREA IS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS NW OHIO FOR NOW BUT THERE STILL IS
SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS NW
OHIO SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. THE 00Z END
TIME ACROSS THE WEST IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. EASTERN AREAS
WILL KEEP THE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE EVENING. WE DID PULL
THE END TIME OF THE EAST ADVISORY TO 09Z AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT
WAY. BESIDES NW PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 012055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED SOME HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW THAT ARE NOW LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO. THIS AREA IS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS NW OHIO FOR NOW BUT THERE STILL IS
SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS NW
OHIO SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. THE 00Z END
TIME ACROSS THE WEST IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. EASTERN AREAS
WILL KEEP THE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE EVENING. WE DID PULL
THE END TIME OF THE EAST ADVISORY TO 09Z AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT
WAY. BESIDES NW PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 012055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED SOME HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW THAT ARE NOW LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO. THIS AREA IS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS NW OHIO FOR NOW BUT THERE STILL IS
SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS NW
OHIO SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. THE 00Z END
TIME ACROSS THE WEST IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. EASTERN AREAS
WILL KEEP THE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE EVENING. WE DID PULL
THE END TIME OF THE EAST ADVISORY TO 09Z AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT
WAY. BESIDES NW PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CHILL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BLANKET THE EAST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ALL LOCATIONS.
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CAUSE IMPACTS WITH
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF HEAVIER SNOW BUT BELIEVE
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR
THE LONGEST PERIOD.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE END TIMES FOR THE ADVISORIES WITH THE WESTERN
PORTION ENDING AT 00Z AND THE EAST ENDING AT 09Z.

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
PROVIDING THEM WITH A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z. AT 18Z...A BAND
OF SNOW WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. BURSTS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TOL/CLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER SITES MAY
START TO SEE VISIBILITIES BOUNCE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHWEST
OHIO TOWARDS 12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011513
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH
RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY.

CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN
INDIANA BY NOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TRENDS ON RADAR WOULD MAKE
US BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THE FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN RATHER SMALL WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING BELOW THE
MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THESE SMALLER
SNOWFLAKES WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL RATES LOWER. HOWEVER THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WHERE THE SNOWFLAKES
INCREASE AND SIZE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS BEING SAID LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO LOCALLY
8 INCHES INTO THE EVENING.

END TIMES OF THE ADVISORY ARE BEING LOOKED AT AND MAY BE SHORTENED
WITH LATER UPDATES. ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON
TRACK. VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP
A LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ITS HERE. THE SNOW ARRIVED IN THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL
LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011513
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH
RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY.

CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN
INDIANA BY NOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TRENDS ON RADAR WOULD MAKE
US BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THE FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN RATHER SMALL WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING BELOW THE
MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THESE SMALLER
SNOWFLAKES WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL RATES LOWER. HOWEVER THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WHERE THE SNOWFLAKES
INCREASE AND SIZE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS BEING SAID LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO LOCALLY
8 INCHES INTO THE EVENING.

END TIMES OF THE ADVISORY ARE BEING LOOKED AT AND MAY BE SHORTENED
WITH LATER UPDATES. ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON
TRACK. VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP
A LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ITS HERE. THE SNOW ARRIVED IN THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL
LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ITS HERE. THE SNOW ARRIVED IN THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL
LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ITS HERE. THE SNOW ARRIVED IN THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL
LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010806
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010806
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010806
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010806
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK.
VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW COMING INTO THE WEST AS EXPECTED IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER SNOW
BEGINS WITH MFD TOL AND FDY ALREADY IFR. EXPECT BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IFR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 010239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 010239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 010239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. ONLY
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FROM CLE AND POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282336
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NW PA SLIGHTLY WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE SNOW TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE
LOOK ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT
LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE
ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282336
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NW PA SLIGHTLY WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE SNOW TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE
LOOK ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT
LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE
ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 282336
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NW PA SLIGHTLY WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE SNOW TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE
LOOK ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT
LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE
ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 23Z ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR FROM THE WEST AFTER
03-04Z TIME FRAME AS SNOW MOVES IN. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z AND KCLE BY 08-09Z. IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KMNN-KGKJ LINE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 282106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 282106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL END UP GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYANDOT COUNTY TO
ERIE COUNTY PA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM KNOX COUNTY TO TRUMBULL
COUNTY. SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER THAN 12 HOUR DURATION THE
AREA WOULD NEED TO RECEIVE GREAT THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS.

ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL END UP GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYANDOT COUNTY TO
ERIE COUNTY PA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM KNOX COUNTY TO TRUMBULL
COUNTY. SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER THAN 12 HOUR DURATION THE
AREA WOULD NEED TO RECEIVE GREAT THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS.

ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL END UP GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYANDOT COUNTY TO
ERIE COUNTY PA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM KNOX COUNTY TO TRUMBULL
COUNTY. SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER THAN 12 HOUR DURATION THE
AREA WOULD NEED TO RECEIVE GREAT THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS.

ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL END UP GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYANDOT COUNTY TO
ERIE COUNTY PA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM KNOX COUNTY TO TRUMBULL
COUNTY. SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER THAN 12 HOUR DURATION THE
AREA WOULD NEED TO RECEIVE GREAT THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS.

ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281458
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HAS
SPREAD SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WATCH AT THIS POINT AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT ROUND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281458
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HAS
SPREAD SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WATCH AT THIS POINT AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT ROUND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
549 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
549 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
549 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280314
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280314
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280314
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS OF SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT APPROACH
BEFORE MORNING TO GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. AS OF 10 PM WOOSTER WAS ALREADY -6
AND ASHTABULA -4. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAYS SNOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE BROUGHT THE RANGE DOWN TO 4 TO 8 INCHES BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM. DOUBLE DIGITS WOULD
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. UPDATED THE
QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND THE WATCH WORDING. NEXT SHIFT WILL GET THE FULL
SUITE OF NEW GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER
PRECIP OTHER THAN SNOW GETS INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS APPROACH BEFORE MORNING TO GET
BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
FIRST THOUGHT IS THAT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR
FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS SNOW TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS APPROACH BEFORE MORNING TO GET
BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
FIRST THOUGHT IS THAT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR
FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS SNOW TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS APPROACH BEFORE MORNING TO GET
BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
FIRST THOUGHT IS THAT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR
FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS SNOW TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS APPROACH BEFORE MORNING TO GET
BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
FIRST THOUGHT IS THAT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR
FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS SNOW TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT.  THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPED A SNOW DEVIL
ACROSS THE HOPKINS AIRPORT FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET.  IN SOME PLACES I MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WE SEE ISOLATED
RIDICULOUS LOWS THAT SHOULD BE IN ALASKA AND NOT OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. I DOUBT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT.  THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPED A SNOW DEVIL
ACROSS THE HOPKINS AIRPORT FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET.  IN SOME PLACES I MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WE SEE ISOLATED
RIDICULOUS LOWS THAT SHOULD BE IN ALASKA AND NOT OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. I DOUBT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT.  THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPED A SNOW DEVIL
ACROSS THE HOPKINS AIRPORT FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET.  IN SOME PLACES I MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WE SEE ISOLATED
RIDICULOUS LOWS THAT SHOULD BE IN ALASKA AND NOT OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. I DOUBT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT.  THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPED A SNOW DEVIL
ACROSS THE HOPKINS AIRPORT FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET.  IN SOME PLACES I MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WE SEE ISOLATED
RIDICULOUS LOWS THAT SHOULD BE IN ALASKA AND NOT OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. I DOUBT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK STRONG ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TOMORROW.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT VALLEYS AND COOLER
LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW.  DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM.  HOWEVER IT WILL
BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE BROKEN.

HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A
NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON SUNDAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
PLENTY OF LIFT SUNDAY AS A 150KT JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE
A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A HEADLINE WILL
DEFINITELY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNABLE TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A
RESULT WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP.  ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIP MAY START
AS SNOW IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM.  THE LATEST GFS STILL HAS 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 8 DEG SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO FALL AS RAIN.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS IS PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.  THE GFS IS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 22 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS NW OH SO SPRING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. IN FACT THE WINDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THE
FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTHERLY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK STRONG ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TOMORROW.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT VALLEYS AND COOLER
LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW.  DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM.  HOWEVER IT WILL
BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE BROKEN.

HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A
NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON SUNDAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
PLENTY OF LIFT SUNDAY AS A 150KT JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE
A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A HEADLINE WILL
DEFINITELY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNABLE TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A
RESULT WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP.  ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIP MAY START
AS SNOW IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM.  THE LATEST GFS STILL HAS 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 8 DEG SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO FALL AS RAIN.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS IS PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.  THE GFS IS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 22 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS NW OH SO SPRING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. IN FACT THE WINDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THE
FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTHERLY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK STRONG ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TOMORROW.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT VALLEYS AND COOLER
LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW.  DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM.  HOWEVER IT WILL
BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE BROKEN.

HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A
NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON SUNDAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
PLENTY OF LIFT SUNDAY AS A 150KT JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE
A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A HEADLINE WILL
DEFINITELY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNABLE TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A
RESULT WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP.  ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIP MAY START
AS SNOW IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM.  THE LATEST GFS STILL HAS 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 8 DEG SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO FALL AS RAIN.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS IS PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.  THE GFS IS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 22 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS NW OH SO SPRING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. IN FACT THE WINDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THE
FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTHERLY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK STRONG ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TOMORROW.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT VALLEYS AND COOLER
LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW.  DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM.  HOWEVER IT WILL
BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE BROKEN.

HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A
NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON SUNDAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
PLENTY OF LIFT SUNDAY AS A 150KT JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE
A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A HEADLINE WILL
DEFINITELY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNABLE TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A
RESULT WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP.  ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIP MAY START
AS SNOW IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM.  THE LATEST GFS STILL HAS 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 8 DEG SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO FALL AS RAIN.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS IS PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.  THE GFS IS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 22 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS NW OH SO SPRING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE KMFD AREA MORNING
STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN MVFR CU DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO MVFR CU DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING FROM KERI LAKESHORE
SOUTHWEST INTO NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE MFD MVFR THROUGH 21Z AND KERI
THROUGH 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. IN FACT THE WINDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THE
FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTHERLY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA







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