Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCLE 230814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221929
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK












000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK












000
FXUS61 KCLE 220742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220108
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 212046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A LAKE TO 850MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL AROUND 15C MORE SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE....SO UPDATED TO PUT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE 850MB WINDS TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210648
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND
WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 210648
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND
WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KUBINA












000
FXUS61 KCLE 210539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KUBINA













000
FXUS61 KCLE 210112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A SANDUSKY TO KMNN LINE AS OF 2330Z. THERE
HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TAF SITES THAT DIP TO IFR LEVELS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 04Z FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 20...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 210112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE. TWEAKED TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A SANDUSKY TO KMNN LINE AS OF 2330Z. THERE
HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TAF SITES THAT DIP TO IFR LEVELS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 04Z FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 20...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 202351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A SANDUSKY TO KMNN LINE AS OF 2330Z. THERE
HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TAF SITES THAT DIP TO IFR LEVELS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 04Z FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 20...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 202351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A SANDUSKY TO KMNN LINE AS OF 2330Z. THERE
HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TAF SITES THAT DIP TO IFR LEVELS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 04Z FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 20...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 202215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 202215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 202215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 202215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 201741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THUNDER. AS DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING
A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. REMAINED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW OH WITH THIS MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THUNDER. AS DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING
A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. REMAINED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW OH WITH THIS MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201620
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THUNDER. AS DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING
A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. REMAINED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW OH WITH THIS MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201620
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THUNDER. AS DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING
A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. REMAINED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW OH WITH THIS MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 201100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 201038
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z SHRA WILL BE
DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOWER TO MVFR. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT 23Z AT TOL TO ABOUT
08Z AT YNG AND ERI. MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS STARTING TO DEVELOP TOWARD
06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 201038
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z SHRA WILL BE
DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOWER TO MVFR. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT 23Z AT TOL TO ABOUT
08Z AT YNG AND ERI. MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS STARTING TO DEVELOP TOWARD
06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities