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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280142
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the
holiday weekend. Hot and humid conditions will support a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Sunday. A
upper low will pass by the region Sunday Night with drier
conditions early next week. Temperatures will cool off a few
degrees with a drop in the humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Only made minor changes to hourly temperature and sky conditions
to reflect current trends.

previous discussion...
Cumulus field is already starting to decrease in coverage this
evening. Since there has not been a good low level focus for
thunderstorms to develop on it has remained dry. Not even the lake
breeze convergence has been enough to generate anything under the
upper level ridging that is in place across the region. So at
this point plan on keeping the dry forecast for tonight. Fewer
clouds than last night and light winds should allow temperatures
to dip a degree or 2 cooler than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will once again start off in the mid to upper 60s
on Saturday. With no notable change in the thermal profiles we can
expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Models indicate a
moistening of the mid and lower levels sufficient to support
scattered convection. Diurnal heating will quickly destabilize the
environment and trigger pulse thunderstorms. The wind profiles do
not show enough shear for organized convection so not anticipating
severe storms. The scattered nature of the thunderstorms will mean
a number of areas will receive little to no rain, while areas that
are impacted could see moderate to briefly heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early in this period the models are in good agreement with weak
ridging aloft over region with fair weather expected. Forecast
confidence decreases toward the end of the week as the gfs builds a
blocking ridge along the east coast and develops a slowly digging
trough over the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile the ECMWF has a
different solution with a more progressive active northern jet
stream along the northern tier of states that moves a cold front
across the region towards the end of the week. will use the blended
guidance with minor adjusts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Saturday will have somewhat better chances at getting a
shower/thunderstorm to pop up...but still chances are too low yet
to mention in the TAFs. Some early morning BR possible for
CAK/YNG. Otherwise VFR conditions. Lake breeze to reverse this
evening...with all terminals having a light southerly flow. Lake
breeze expected again Saturday for ERI, but possibly not at CLE.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered Non-VFR possible in mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Brief
MVFR possible in early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday from
MFD to CAK and YNG.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will prevail on lake erie as the region
remains on the western edge of high pressure centered off the mid
Atlantic coast. Weak southerly winds less than 10 knots can be
expect though the weekend except during the saturday afternoon
when a weak lake breeze may develop. A weak cold front will
approach and cross the lake sunday night and monday with veering
winds to westerly monday with generally 5-15 knots speeds. Weak
high pressure will build over the lake tuesday and east of the
lake wednesday. Winds will continue to veer to north and then
easterly on wednesday. No small craft advisories are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...LaPlante





000
FXUS61 KCLE 270135
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday
will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
There were a couple showers that developed across the west around
sunset but they fell apart quickly since there is not a
significant trigger. 5H progs indicate that there might be a weak
trough moving across Ohio overnight. This may be able to initiate
a weak shower or brief rumble of thunder across the eastern half
of the County Warning Area (CWA).

Otherwise expect to see variable amounts of middle and high level
cloud cover through the night. Moisture levels area elevated so
expect lows to hold in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue during the period. Rain chances
will be hit and miss during the period as there is a lack
organized forcing at the surface. It appears best chance for
storms will be on Saturday as the low over the Central Plains
lifts northeast toward the northern Lakes. At the same time a wave
will scoot up the west side of the upper ridge. It appears a weak warm
frontal boundary will try to lift across the local area at the
same time. The factors combined could provide enough forcing for
some organized convection. Given the areas location under the
upper ridge there will be little if any shear. So, the threat for
severe weather is minimal. The models are similar with this
scenario but all have slight timing differences. Will continue
with chance pops most of the period.

It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s every day with
Saturday likely the warmest of the days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Memorial Day
with humidity dropping off a bit. The frontal boundary should be
south and east of the area early in the day so removed chances for
precipitation from most areas, with just a slight chance continuing
in the southeast. Daytime highs should only drop off a couple
degrees but lows will trend back into the upper 50s to near 60 with
high pressure overhead on Monday and Tuesday nights. Conditions
should remain dry through mid-week but we will need to start
watching for moisture return ahead of the next trough approaching
from the Plains during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widely sct shra/tsra will remain possible thru fri evening. There
will be a better chc for the shra/tsra to affect an airport until
about midnight tonight then again fri afternoon once daytime heating
triggers new convection. Since the chc is low will only carry VCSH
unless something appears imminent. Most of the cu field will
dissipate thru 02z then redevelop by midday fri.

The increased dewpoints and light winds should lead to mvfr fog
forming late tonight then dissipating by 13z to 14z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected through the Holiday
weekend with winds averaging 10 knots or less. Lake Erie is located
between high pressure over the southeastern states and broad low
pressure across the plains and upper midwest. Generally light wind
pattern will allow lake breezes to develop each afternoon on the
east half of the lake through Saturday. Low pressure will track out
of the plains across the central great lakes from Saturday night
through Sunday night with a weak cold front moving south across lake
Erie early Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 261141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Removed the chance of thunder for the morning and
adjusted near term temperatures. Otherwise no changes.

Original...A weak short wave now over Indiana will move over Ohio
this morning. At this time not a lot going on with the system to
our west however radar does show showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest over srn lower MI. Showers also into nwrn pa but expect
them to drift northeast of the area early. Other concern is that
the HRRR depicted showers developing and moving into the western
counties early this morning before dissipating. Will bring in a
low chance pop to the west this morning. For the afternoon will
have chance pops most places which is undercutting the mav numbers
and is closer to the met at least in the east. Highs will again be
around 80-83 most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to be
raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
temps/humidity summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A mid level shortwave trough is sparking some isolated showers
around the Lake Erie region this morning. Along and behind this
trough, some pesky MVFR clouds are moving in, mostly few/scattered
in nature, but occasionally showing up in some observations as a
broken layer. This trough and associated showers and clouds will
move east through the mid to late morning hours. The MVFR clouds
should lift and dissipate with daytime heating and the showers are
extremely isolated in nature that a vicinity shower isn`t
necessary. Winds will be southerly throughout the day today.

After the early afternoon, the forecast gets fairly uncertain,
as models aren`t very bullish on rain/storm chances today. The
remnants of an old storm complex moving across central Illinois
this morning will progress east and will likely dissipate
throughout the day, but there may be some remaining clouds or
light showers that could make it into the area by late day. In
addition, another piece of energy in the mid levels may generate
some scattered rain showers late in the day. Thus, went with a
vicinity shower in the TAFs for the late afternoon into the early
evening following the timing of this mid level wave, but
confidence in timing, coverage, and thunder chances is low and
will need to be monitored at future TAF issuances. For the
overnight, some MVFR fog is possible before daybreak as the
airmass over the region will be fairly saturated. Any sites that
see rainfall on Thursday will be even more likely to see fog
before dawn on Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic





000
FXUS61 KCLE 260926
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
530 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak short wave now over Indiana will move over ohio this
morning. At this time not a lot going on with the system to our
west however radar does show showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest over srn lower MI. Showers also into nwrn pa but expect
them to drift northeast of the area early. Other concern is that
the HRRR depicted showers developing and moving into the western
counties early this morning before dissipating. Will bring in a
low chance pop to the west this morning. For the afternoon will
have chance pops most places which is undercutting the mav numbers
and is closer to the met at least in the east. Highs will again be
around 80-83 most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to
be raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
temps/humidity summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic





000
FXUS61 KCLE 260546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mechanism for significant forcing lacking so still see only sct
coverage tonight as weak s/w works ne into the cwa late tonight.
Marginally unstable enough for some thunder but much of the
convection will probably just be shra. A few locations could see a
quarter of an inch of rainfall but most of the cwa that gets
rain will see a tenth of an inch or less.

Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints
continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Lombardy





000
FXUS61 KCLE 251906
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Starting to see some pop up showers over the southwest end of the
area. This precip is associated with an upper short wave that will
try to lift across the area tonight. At the other end of the
forecast area...the atmosphere remains capped and skies are
cumulus free. Expect the precip to expand slightly over the west
this evening. May even get some thunder as dewpoints have climbed
into the upper 50s. Better chances for precip will occur after
midnight...especially across the north as some slight cooling
aloft is expected in response to the wave. The GFS MOS is giving
categorical pops overnight. Given the airmass...coverage will be
more scattered than anything so will go with chance type pops.
Places like MFD and CAK may remain completely dry. Low temps will
be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
An upper level disturbance will move east across the area late
tonight and there is the threat for thunderstorms with this
feature. Expecting thunderstorms to arrive after midnight in the
west and toward sunrise in the east as the upper level feature
moves from west to east. Some lingering clouds will follow the
thunderstorms in the morning and then gradually improve to some
high cirrus clouds by mid day. Winds should be around 7 to 10
knots from the southwest through the period most areas but light
and variable in the west overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy





000
FXUS61 KCLE 251131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the
area from the east Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Pushed any mention of precip into the afternoon. Also
increased cloud cover a bit through the morning with decently
thick cirrus moving across the area. Adjusted near term temps and
dewpoints.

Original...Skies clear across the area early this morning but am
concerned about convective development today as a short wave over
Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into
the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around
1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west
and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around
50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the
building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will
split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west
and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model
guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the
area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with
low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a
continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will
have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal
drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in
all...quite summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm
temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep
isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period.
However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and
evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that
can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact
highs each day by a few degrees.

Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.

Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
KMFD.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure
gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland
today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of
Cleveland.

Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for
Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake
breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will
likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not
exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm
threat each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen





000
FXUS61 KCLE 250714
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the
area from the east Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies clear across the area early this morning but am concerned
about convective development today as a short wave over
Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into
the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around
1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west
and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around
50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the
building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will
split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west
and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model
guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the
area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with
low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a
continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will
have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal
drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in
all...quite summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm
temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep
isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period.
However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and
evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that
can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact
highs each day by a few degrees.

Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.

Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
KMFD.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure
gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland
today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of
Cleveland.

Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for
Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake
breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will
likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not
exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm
threat each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen





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