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000
FXUS61 KCLE 072012
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/... LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER APPROACHING
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN WITH IT THAT WILL
LIKELY EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
IFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD ENTER WEST AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AFTER
06-08Z CENTRAL AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 071739
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLA.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER APPROACHING
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN WITH IT THAT WILL
LIKELY EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
IFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD ENTER WEST AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AFTER
06-08Z CENTRAL AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 071443
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLA.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 071143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 071143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 070420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCOOT ACROSS THOSE AREAS THEN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SKIES CLEARING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING NW
OHIO CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISSIPATE BUT PERIODS OF BROKEN SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THERE TOO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS LOOK FINE GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 070420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCOOT ACROSS THOSE AREAS THEN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SKIES CLEARING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING NW
OHIO CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISSIPATE BUT PERIODS OF BROKEN SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THERE TOO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS LOOK FINE GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 070219
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCOOT ACROSS THOSE AREAS THEN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SKIES CLEARING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING NW
OHIO CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISSIPATE BUT PERIODS OF BROKEN SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THERE TOO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS LOOK FINE GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 070219
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCOOT ACROSS THOSE AREAS THEN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SKIES CLEARING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING NW
OHIO CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISSIPATE BUT PERIODS OF BROKEN SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THERE TOO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS LOOK FINE GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 070219
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCOOT ACROSS THOSE AREAS THEN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SKIES CLEARING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING NW
OHIO CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISSIPATE BUT PERIODS OF BROKEN SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THERE TOO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS LOOK FINE GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 062315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 062315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 062315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 062039
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061707
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TODAY IN GRAPHICS.
SATELLITE DOES SHOW A SWATH OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES BUT BELIEVE THAT SHOULD THIN/BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. EDITS HOWEVER SHOULD RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THE ZONES READING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY.
ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FAR EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM
THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061707
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TODAY IN GRAPHICS.
SATELLITE DOES SHOW A SWATH OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES BUT BELIEVE THAT SHOULD THIN/BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. EDITS HOWEVER SHOULD RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THE ZONES READING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY.
ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FAR EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM
THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061631
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM
THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061631
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM
THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061631
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD SCT AT MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT FROM
THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TODAY IN GRAPHICS.
SATELLITE DOES SHOW A SWATH OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES BUT BELIEVE THAT SHOULD THIN/BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. EDITS HOWEVER SHOULD RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THE ZONES READING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY.
ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FAR EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS TO EITHER HIGH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL. ADDED/ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMS. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE LOW FILLING AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST
COAST BUT WE WILL USUALLY GET SOMETHING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP.

ORIGINAL...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST
LOW. IT WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES
AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 061133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES
AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES
AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 060908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT.  MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT.  MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT.  MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 060233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT.  MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 4K-6K OVC DECK WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 052307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 4K-6K OVC DECK WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 052307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 4K-6K OVC DECK WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 052307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 4K-6K OVC DECK WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 052000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051640
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.




ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051640
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.




ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051640
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO BIG CHANGES.




ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO START ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OHIO PORTION OF THE AREA AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL
HANGING ON ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST SO IT
MAY TAKE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NWRN PA. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN NWRN PA BUT SHOULD BE DRY MOST PLACES. NO BIG CHANGES
TO FORECAST.




ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO START ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OHIO PORTION OF THE AREA AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL
HANGING ON ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST SO IT
MAY TAKE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NWRN PA. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN NWRN PA BUT SHOULD BE DRY MOST PLACES. NO BIG CHANGES
TO FORECAST.




ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTY PA AND MOVING EAST. CLEARING HAS REACHED ALL THE
WAY TO YOUNGSTOWN ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE REDEVELOPING
OFF LAKE ERIE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURLY
TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTY PA AND MOVING EAST. CLEARING HAS REACHED ALL THE
WAY TO YOUNGSTOWN ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE REDEVELOPING
OFF LAKE ERIE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURLY
TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTY PA AND MOVING EAST. CLEARING HAS REACHED ALL THE
WAY TO YOUNGSTOWN ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE REDEVELOPING
OFF LAKE ERIE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURLY
TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE EAST AND CLEARING IS TRYING TO PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF 6000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050854
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE NOW INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NOW BETWEEN TOL
AND MFD. THINK CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AS 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REACH NW PA UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF KCLE WITH FLURRIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS KMFD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO END MOST AREAS BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS MAY BE OVER NW PA WOULD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH IN FOR OVERNIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...THE CLEARING HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MINOR CHANGES
WHERE NEEDED BUT HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE NOW INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NOW BETWEEN TOL
AND MFD. THINK CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AS 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REACH NW PA UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF KCLE WITH FLURRIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS KMFD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO END MOST AREAS BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS MAY BE OVER NW PA WOULD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH IN FOR OVERNIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...THE CLEARING HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MINOR CHANGES
WHERE NEEDED BUT HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE NOW INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NOW BETWEEN TOL
AND MFD. THINK CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AS 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REACH NW PA UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF KCLE WITH FLURRIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS KMFD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO END MOST AREAS BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS MAY BE OVER NW PA WOULD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH IN FOR OVERNIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...THE CLEARING HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MINOR CHANGES
WHERE NEEDED BUT HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE NOW INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NOW BETWEEN TOL
AND MFD. THINK CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AS 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REACH NW PA UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF KCLE WITH FLURRIES
AS FAR SOUTH AS KMFD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO END MOST AREAS BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS MAY BE OVER NW PA WOULD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH IN FOR OVERNIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...THE CLEARING HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MINOR CHANGES
WHERE NEEDED BUT HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
MORE ISOLATED TO NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. WITH A SHSN...BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THE BETTER SHSN OFF OF KERI WILL
DIP SOUTH AND HIT THE TERMINAL. KERI HAS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A MORE
ROBUST SHSN OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR TROUGH PASSAGE.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE AREA.
TOL/FDY TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEARLY 18Z FRI FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY VEER
MORE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE OUT. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND GONE WITH SCATTERED WORDING. REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS
INDICATING A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN A FEW
AREAS SO HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

ORIGINAL...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
OVERCAST SKIES BUT CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE
DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN
THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
MORE ISOLATED TO NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. WITH A SHSN...BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THE BETTER SHSN OFF OF KERI WILL
DIP SOUTH AND HIT THE TERMINAL. KERI HAS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A MORE
ROBUST SHSN OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR TROUGH PASSAGE.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE AREA.
TOL/FDY TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEARLY 18Z FRI FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY VEER
MORE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES BUT
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING
TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO
MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING OF STRATUS DECK NEAR THE
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. THINK THE WEST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. THINK IT WILL BE INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FLURRIES END AND STRATUS SCATTERS OUT IN THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
IN -SN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE OUT. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND GONE WITH SCATTERED WORDING. REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS
INDICATING A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN A FEW
AREAS SO HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

ORIGINAL...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
OVERCAST SKIES BUT CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE
DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN
THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
MORE ISOLATED TO NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. WITH A SHSN...BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THE BETTER SHSN OFF OF KERI WILL
DIP SOUTH AND HIT THE TERMINAL. KERI HAS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A MORE
ROBUST SHSN OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR TROUGH PASSAGE.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE AREA.
TOL/FDY TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEARLY 18Z FRI FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY VEER
MORE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE OUT. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND GONE WITH SCATTERED WORDING. REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS
INDICATING A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN A FEW
AREAS SO HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

ORIGINAL...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
OVERCAST SKIES BUT CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE
DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN
THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
MORE ISOLATED TO NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. WITH A SHSN...BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THE BETTER SHSN OFF OF KERI WILL
DIP SOUTH AND HIT THE TERMINAL. KERI HAS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A MORE
ROBUST SHSN OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR TROUGH PASSAGE.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE AREA.
TOL/FDY TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEARLY 18Z FRI FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY VEER
MORE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES BUT
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING
TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO
MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING OF STRATUS DECK NEAR THE
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. THINK THE WEST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. THINK IT WILL BE INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FLURRIES END AND STRATUS SCATTERS OUT IN THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
IN -SN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES BUT
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING
TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO
MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING OF STRATUS DECK NEAR THE
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. THINK THE WEST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. THINK IT WILL BE INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FLURRIES END AND STRATUS SCATTERS OUT IN THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
IN -SN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN




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