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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA/ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
SHOULD BE LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A TROUGH LINGERS
BACK OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AS THE LOW PASSES BY
AND REMAIN STRONGER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW TRACK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA/ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
SHOULD BE LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A TROUGH LINGERS
BACK OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AS THE LOW PASSES BY
AND REMAIN STRONGER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW TRACK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251653
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA/ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
SHOULD BE LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251653
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA/ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
SHOULD BE LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
820 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTH FOR THE MORNING. ONCE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN ALOFT THIS THREAT
WILL END.

AT 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKESHORE. THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER INCREASES
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE HOURLY
POP/WEATHER GRAPHICS FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
820 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTH FOR THE MORNING. ONCE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN ALOFT THIS THREAT
WILL END.

AT 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKESHORE. THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER INCREASES
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE HOURLY
POP/WEATHER GRAPHICS FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251201
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER INCREASES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE HOURLY POP/WEATHER
GRAPHICS FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON










000
FXUS61 KCLE 251201
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER INCREASES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE HOURLY POP/WEATHER
GRAPHICS FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON









000
FXUS61 KCLE 250926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
426 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY BUT
DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DROPPING AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO SUNDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRUN THE TAF SITES IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO FAR SOUTH...ERI MAY ESCAPE
THE EVENT WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
426 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY BUT
DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DROPPING AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO SUNDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRUN THE TAF SITES IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO FAR SOUTH...ERI MAY ESCAPE
THE EVENT WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DROPPING AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO SUNDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRUN THE TAF SITES IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO FAR SOUTH...ERI MAY ESCAPE
THE EVENT WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DROPPING AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO SUNDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRUN THE TAF SITES IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO FAR SOUTH...ERI MAY ESCAPE
THE EVENT WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES
AND FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 250207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES
AND FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 250207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES
AND FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 250207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES
AND FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 242326
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL
START TO OCCUR TO HELP SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL PUT OUT WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES AND
FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING
IFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 242158
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
456 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL
START TO OCCUR TO HELP SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL PUT OUT WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME CEILINGS NEAR 3000
FEET ARE DEVELOPING NW OF DETROIT...SOME CONCERN THAT SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES OR 5SM IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 242158
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
456 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL
START TO OCCUR TO HELP SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL PUT OUT WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME CEILINGS NEAR 3000
FEET ARE DEVELOPING NW OF DETROIT...SOME CONCERN THAT SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES OR 5SM IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 242021
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME SNOW. DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
LITTLE MOISTURE ALOFT FOR THE SEEDER FEEDER EFFECT TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONLY SNOW. SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME OVER RUNNING TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FRONT TO GET THROUGH
THE AREA AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. EASTERN
PORTIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME CEILINGS NEAR 3000
FEET ARE DEVELOPING NW OF DETROIT...SOME CONCERN THAT SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES OR 5SM IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CAN
STILL SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME CEILINGS NEAR 3000
FEET ARE DEVELOPING NW OF DETROIT...SOME CONCERN THAT SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES OR 5SM IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CAN
STILL SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME CEILINGS NEAR 3000
FEET ARE DEVELOPING NW OF DETROIT...SOME CONCERN THAT SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES OR 5SM IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CAN
STILL SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CAN
STILL SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RADAR ECHOES CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH
ARE MOSTLY ALOFT. NOT MUCH GETTING TO THE GROUND ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES OR DRIZZLE DROPS. ALLOWED FOR
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING JUST IN
CASE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
THIN SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS
WILL WIN OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241147
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE EAST COAST LOW SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THIN
SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY. I BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT IS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DRIZZLE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND
CANNOT RULE IT OUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A BIT OF A DROP UNDER ONLY THIN CIRRUS FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA. ERIE IS THE COLD SPOT WITH 21 AT 9PM AND A FEW TEENS AT
THE MESONET STATIONS. THESE TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
FOR THE AREA LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIP BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ZANESVILLE AT 9PM. THE
CUTOFF WILL BE SHARP. MAYBE AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN
LINE MIGHT GET A FLURRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A BIT OF A DROP UNDER ONLY THIN CIRRUS FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA. ERIE IS THE COLD SPOT WITH 21 AT 9PM AND A FEW TEENS AT
THE MESONET STATIONS. THESE TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
FOR THE AREA LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIP BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ZANESVILLE AT 9PM. THE
CUTOFF WILL BE SHARP. MAYBE AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN
LINE MIGHT GET A FLURRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A PROB30
MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240227
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A BIT OF A DROP UNDER ONLY THIN CIRRUS FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA. ERIE IS THE COLD SPOT WITH 21 AT 9PM AND A FEW TEENS AT
THE MESONET STATIONS. THESE TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
FOR THE AREA LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIP BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ZANESVILLE AT 9PM. THE
CUTOFF WILL BE SHARP. MAYBE AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN
LINE MIGHT GET A FLURRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 08Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A
PROB30 MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 240227
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A BIT OF A DROP UNDER ONLY THIN CIRRUS FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA. ERIE IS THE COLD SPOT WITH 21 AT 9PM AND A FEW TEENS AT
THE MESONET STATIONS. THESE TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
FOR THE AREA LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIP BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ZANESVILLE AT 9PM. THE
CUTOFF WILL BE SHARP. MAYBE AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN
LINE MIGHT GET A FLURRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 08Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A
PROB30 MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 232350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ECHOS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE THOUGH.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 08Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A
PROB30 MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 232350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE THE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO
EXPAND WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ECHOS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS SOUTH OF A CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE THOUGH.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREADY HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MAY NOT
REACH EASTERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER 08Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. AS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH
TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. SO FAR HAVE ONLY PLACED A
PROB30 MENTION IN THE TAF AT KERI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 232106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE SCATTERING OUT FOR MOST AREAS
TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO EXPAND
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ECHOS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS SOUT OF A CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREAD HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN START
DRIFTING SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IF IT WAS 4 WEEKS LATER WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THE CLOUDS WOULD DECREASE. MOST OF
THE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN BY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REASONABLE. THE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY BECOME VFR AND THEN START DECREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 232106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NW OHIO WHILE SCATTERING OUT FOR MOST AREAS
TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS EAST COAST. CLOUD
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE STRATUS IN NW OHIO TRIES TO EXPAND
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CARRY INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ECHOS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS SOUT OF A CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEI. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIQUID. ONLY INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN NW PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 32. AT SOME POINT
DURING THE EVENING EXPECTING WHATEVER ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SNOW
BELT WITH PRECIPITATION DRYING UP ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOUTHERN SHIFT WHICH THE ECMWF WAS
ALREAD HINTING AT WITH THE 00Z RUN. GIVEN THE STRONG ENERGY DIVING
OUT OF NW CANADA...PREFER THE TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST WITH LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...A LOT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT NOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO THAT ENHANCED LIFT AS IT TRIED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT IN LIEU OF A
FASTER MOVING OPEN TROUGH. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START BY
MID-MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FINDLAY-MANSFIELD-CANTON LINE...TAPERING TO 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NW PA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT IN
TRACK. SUSPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN
DIRECTION. THE 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE AND IS SAMPLED BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW COULD BE LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AND THEN AS IT WARMS UP A
SWITCH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY...ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
DRY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN START
DRIFTING SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IF IT WAS 4 WEEKS LATER WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THE CLOUDS WOULD DECREASE. MOST OF
THE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN BY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REASONABLE. THE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY BECOME VFR AND THEN START DECREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONT/TROF MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE WAY
BELOW GALE FORCE. A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AND IN THE COLD ADVECTION THEY
WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1255 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ALLOWING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD DECK. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY IN NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD ON IN NW OHIO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST
INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA
DUE TO STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION
BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS
AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. WPC FORECASTING
A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THAT DOES NOT SEEM
UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW. STILL
SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW THIS FAR
OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN START
DRIFTING SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IF IT WAS 4 WEEKS LATER WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THE CLOUDS WOULD DECREASE. MOST OF
THE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN BY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REASONABLE. THE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY BECOME VFR AND THEN START DECREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 231755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1255 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ALLOWING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD DECK. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY IN NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD ON IN NW OHIO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST
INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA
DUE TO STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION
BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS
AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. WPC FORECASTING
A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THAT DOES NOT SEEM
UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW. STILL
SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW THIS FAR
OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN START
DRIFTING SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IF IT WAS 4 WEEKS LATER WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THE CLOUDS WOULD DECREASE. MOST OF
THE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN BY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REASONABLE. THE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY BECOME VFR AND THEN START DECREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 231448
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRATUS HOLDING ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WE MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP OVER LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOW 30S GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO
STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 231448
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRATUS HOLDING ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WE MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP OVER LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOW 30S GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO
STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
612 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO
STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
612 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO
STRONG INVERSION UNDER THE HIGH. DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION
UNDER THE HIGH.  DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION
UNDER THE HIGH.  DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION SET IN
PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A BREAK
DEVELOPS AS THE CLEAR PATCH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH AND TOUCHES
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN KCLE 22-24Z FOR
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE HUNG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS GRAPHICS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A BREEZE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230839
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION
UNDER THE HIGH.  DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO BREAK UP AND LIFT CEILINGS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER NW
OHIO MAY SEE BREAKS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230839
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDS WEST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  OVERCAST SKIES AS FAR WEST AS IOWA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION
UNDER THE HIGH.  DO NOT SEE INVERSION BREAKING UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. VERY DRY SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DROP LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COLDER.   AND WHILE PRECIP COULD START AS A LITTLE RAIN IN
THE SOUTH...FEEL THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  WWD
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THAT DOES
NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
LOW.   STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST HOWEVER THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BE. PLUS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE THINNING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND A
LITTLE SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR...-14 TO -16C AT 850MB...
OVER THE LAKE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO BREAK UP AND LIFT CEILINGS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER NW
OHIO MAY SEE BREAKS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AS A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF SUNDAYS STORM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE OVER. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING THAT DROPPED INTO THE EAST PART
OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT IS FILLING BACK IN. EXPECT
SKY COVER TO STAY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS FELL TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS IN THE EVENING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD
CLEARED OUT BUT HAVE NOW STABILIZED OR EVEN RISEN IN SOME SPOTS.
WITH EXTEND OF CLOUD COVER...FROM HERE ON OUT ONLY SEE FURTHER TEMPS
FALLS OF ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO BREAK UP AND LIFT CEILINGS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER NW
OHIO MAY SEE BREAKS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE OVER. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING THAT DROPPED INTO THE EAST PART
OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT IS FILLING BACK IN. EXPECT
SKY COVER TO STAY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS FELL TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS IN THE EVENING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD
CLEARED OUT BUT HAVE NOW STABILIZED OR EVEN RISEN IN SOME SPOTS.
WITH EXTEND OF CLOUD COVER...FROM HERE ON OUT ONLY SEE FURTHER TEMPS
FALLS OF ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO BREAK UP AND LIFT CEILINGS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER NW
OHIO MAY SEE BREAKS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE OVER. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING THAT DROPPED INTO THE EAST PART
OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT IS FILLING BACK IN. EXPECT
SKY COVER TO STAY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS FELL TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS IN THE EVENING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD
CLEARED OUT BUT HAVE NOW STABILIZED OR EVEN RISEN IN SOME SPOTS.
WITH EXTEND OF CLOUD COVER...FROM HERE ON OUT ONLY SEE FURTHER TEMPS
FALLS OF ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 222334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE ENDING. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING TRYING TO DROP INTO NE OH
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
EVENING AND BLEND THIS WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FORECAST.

WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE ENDING. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING TRYING TO DROP INTO NE OH
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
EVENING AND BLEND THIS WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FORECAST.

WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE ENDING. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING TRYING TO DROP INTO NE OH
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
EVENING AND BLEND THIS WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FORECAST.

WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING OF THE KCLE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT VSBYS AT KCLE TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH REMAINING IFR AREAS
JUMPING TO MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE ALREADY LIFTING
TO VFR IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY TO TAKE WELL INTO THE EVENING
TO HAPPEN IN THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS IN THE WEST COULD
BECOME SCT OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE EAST. LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WEST
TO SW. DO NOT EXPECT THE N FLOW AT KCLE TO LAST.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 222301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO BE ENDING. THE CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE CLEARING TRYING TO DROP INTO NE OH
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
EVENING AND BLEND THIS WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FORECAST.

WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING OF THE KCLE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT VSBYS AT KCLE TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH REMAINING IFR AREAS
JUMPING TO MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE ALREADY LIFTING
TO VFR IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY TO TAKE WELL INTO THE EVENING
TO HAPPEN IN THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS IN THE WEST COULD
BECOME SCT OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE EAST. LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WEST
TO SW. DO NOT EXPECT THE N FLOW AT KCLE TO LAST.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 222105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE ENDED WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES LINGERING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE
ERIE WITH SOME BREAKS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
OUT OF NW PA THIS EVENING WHILE CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR INTERIOR
AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD BREAK
IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING OF THE KCLE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT VSBYS AT KCLE TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH REMAINING IFR AREAS
JUMPING TO MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE ALREADY LIFTING
TO VFR IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY TO TAKE WELL INTO THE EVENING
TO HAPPEN IN THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS IN THE WEST COULD
BECOME SCT OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE EAST. LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WEST
TO SW. DO NOT EXPECT THE N FLOW AT KCLE TO LAST.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE ENDED WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES LINGERING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS
BENEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE
ERIE WITH SOME BREAKS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
OUT OF NW PA THIS EVENING WHILE CLOUDS GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR INTERIOR
AREAS WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GOOD BREAK
IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HELP TO ERODE WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST(NEAR 20) WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN NW OHIO.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SNOWBELT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE COLDER AIR PASSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CAME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THE
12Z ECMWF IS THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE ERIE WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND MAY NOT BE SAMPLED VERY WELL BY RADIOSONDE NETWORK
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON
A SOLUTION UNTIL THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH STILL AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. EXPANDED
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  BY THAT TIME
ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.  WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES HIGH IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEK.  PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS BY MIDWEEK.  HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE GFS IS HINTING AT A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DEAL WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING OF THE KCLE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT VSBYS AT KCLE TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH REMAINING IFR AREAS
JUMPING TO MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE ALREADY LIFTING
TO VFR IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY TO TAKE WELL INTO THE EVENING
TO HAPPEN IN THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS IN THE WEST COULD
BECOME SCT OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE EAST. LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WEST
TO SW. DO NOT EXPECT THE N FLOW AT KCLE TO LAST.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY W TO SW TILL SUNDAY.  AT
THAT TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE SO
EXPECT THE WIND FORECAST TO BE IN FLUX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.  IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








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