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000
FXUS61 KCLE 052348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BELIEVE THESE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. IN ANY
EVENT IT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE. IF WINDS CAN DECREASE ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KMFD...KCAK AND
KYNG. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH AND NW. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NON VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 052224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SHOWERS...THAT
PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT YNG AND CAK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STRIP OF IFR CEILINGS FROM NEAR ERI TO CLE TO MFD SLOWLY LIFTING
AND FEWER AND FEWER SITES WILL BE REPORTING IFR. AREA SHOULD BE
MVFR/VFR BY 20Z. CLEARING WILL WORK IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SITES. EASTERN SITES WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOW END VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF
STAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051943
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SHOWERS...THAT
PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT YNG AND CAK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STRIP OF IFR CEILINGS FROM NEAR ERI TO CLE TO MFD SLOWLY LIFTING
AND FEWER AND FEWER SITES WILL BE REPORTING IFR. AREA SHOULD BE
MVFR/VFR BY 20Z. CLEARING WILL WORK IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SITES. EASTERN SITES WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOW END VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF
STAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051943
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SHOWERS...THAT
PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT YNG AND CAK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STRIP OF IFR CEILINGS FROM NEAR ERI TO CLE TO MFD SLOWLY LIFTING
AND FEWER AND FEWER SITES WILL BE REPORTING IFR. AREA SHOULD BE
MVFR/VFR BY 20Z. CLEARING WILL WORK IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SITES. EASTERN SITES WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOW END VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF
STAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051752
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY NEAR CLE CAK AND BJJ.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION  SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SHOWERS...THAT
PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT YNG AND CAK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STRIP OF IFR CEILINGS FROM NEAR ERI TO CLE TO MFD SLOWLY LIFTING
AND FEWER AND FEWER SITES WILL BE REPORTING IFR. AREA SHOULD BE
MVFR/VFR BY 20Z. CLEARING WILL WORK IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SITES. EASTERN SITES WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOW END VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF
STAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY NEAR CLE CAK AND BJJ.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION  SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO
THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY NEAR CLE CAK AND BJJ.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION  SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO
THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION  SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO
THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 051136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH AS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF STARTING IN THE
NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS TODAY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINES WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LOW OVER INDIANA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT INCLUDING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE
COUNTIES BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE COLD CORE ALOFT(-25C @H500) WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AREA BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD
THUNDER WORDING TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS...NORTH
WIND...AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A FEW DEG ABOVE 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO
THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
551 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH AS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF STARTING IN THE
NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS TODAY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINES WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LOW OVER INDIANA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT INCLUDING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE
COUNTIES BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE COLD CORE ALOFT(-25C @H500) WILL
DESTABALIZE THE AREA BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD
THUNDER WORDING TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS...NORTH
WIND...AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A FEW DEG ABOVE 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT INCLUDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE COUNTIES BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE COLD CORE ALOFT(-25C @H500) WILL DESTABALIZE THE AREA
BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD THUNDER WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS...NORTH WIND...AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60F THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST THERE
WILL BE LESS CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEG ABOVE 60F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PIVOT MORE TO THE
SW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS THE INTENSITY WEAKENS. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FILLING IN WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONCERNED FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PIVOT MORE TO THE
SW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS THE INTENSITY WEAKENS. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FILLING IN WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONCERNED FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PIVOT MORE TO THE
SW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS THE INTENSITY WEAKENS. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FILLING IN WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONCERNED FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOUTHWESTERN MAHONING COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS HAS LIKELY CAUSED
SOME PONDING OF WATER OF ROADWAYS AND FILLED AREA DITCHES.
FORTUNATELY THE RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AREA IF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS CAN REDEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA.

THE REMAINING SWATH OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DOESNT LOOK
TO BE ALL THAT HEAVY BUT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER WET
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOUTHWESTERN MAHONING COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS HAS LIKELY CAUSED
SOME PONDING OF WATER OF ROADWAYS AND FILLED AREA DITCHES.
FORTUNATELY THE RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AREA IF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS CAN REDEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA.

THE REMAINING SWATH OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DOESNT LOOK
TO BE ALL THAT HEAVY BUT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER WET
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042318
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...THAT MOVES ACROSS
MAHONING COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
STABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL
REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED FROM NEAR
TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO .50 INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042318
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...THAT MOVES ACROSS
MAHONING COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
STABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL
REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED FROM NEAR
TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO .50 INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...THAT MOVES ACROSS
MAHONING COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
STABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL
REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED FROM NEAR
TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO .50 INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...THAT MOVES ACROSS
MAHONING COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
STABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL
REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED FROM NEAR
TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO .50 INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED
FROM NEAR TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO
.50 INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.



.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.






&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041750
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LI DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND SFC
BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 500 J/KG NEAR THE MNN AREA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING/BUILDING OVER THE UNSTABLE AREA
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES OVER MORROW COUNTY AND NEAR
YNG. THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE NNE. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND NEAR ERIE
ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS AND MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE
POPS IN THE EAST AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041750
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LI DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND SFC
BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 500 J/KG NEAR THE MNN AREA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING/BUILDING OVER THE UNSTABLE AREA
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES OVER MORROW COUNTY AND NEAR
YNG. THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE NNE. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND NEAR ERIE
ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS AND MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE
POPS IN THE EAST AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041614
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1214 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LI DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND SFC
BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 500 J/KG NEAR THE MNN AREA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING/BUILDING OVER THE UNSTABLE AREA
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES OVER MORROW COUNTY AND NEAR
YNG. THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE NNE. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND NEAR ERIE
ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS AND MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE
POPS IN THE EAST AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041614
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1214 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LI DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND SFC
BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 500 J/KG NEAR THE MNN AREA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING/BUILDING OVER THE UNSTABLE AREA
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES OVER MORROW COUNTY AND NEAR
YNG. THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE NNE. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND NEAR ERIE
ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS AND MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE
POPS IN THE EAST AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041402
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER DIVING SOUTH NEAR CHI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING NW OHIO WITH SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
HAS SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AND SHOULD PRODUCE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TOL TO MFD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING ALTHOUGH CURRENT UPPER AIR DATA DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH WARM ADVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041402
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER DIVING SOUTH NEAR CHI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING NW OHIO WITH SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
HAS SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AND SHOULD PRODUCE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TOL TO MFD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING ALTHOUGH CURRENT UPPER AIR DATA DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH WARM ADVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN AREA IS STILL
BACK WEST OVER WESTERN INDIANA. STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
PIVOT AROUND AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN
THE EAST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN AREA IS STILL
BACK WEST OVER WESTERN INDIANA. STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
PIVOT AROUND AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN
THE EAST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT
COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IF THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN AREA IS STILL
BACK WEST OVER WESTERN INDIANA. STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
PIVOT AROUND AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN
THE EAST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT
COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IF THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT
COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IF THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT
COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IF THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP OVER THE AREA WITH BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST ENDS MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL
AREAS BUT BY MORNING IT WILL AGAIN BE OVERCAST. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FORECAST LOWS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP OVER THE AREA WITH BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST ENDS MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL
AREAS BUT BY MORNING IT WILL AGAIN BE OVERCAST. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FORECAST LOWS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031611
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031611
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITES CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE
AREA IN INDIANA RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN...MOST OF WHICH
IS NOT ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT FALLS APART. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE ONGOING MOST CLOUDY SKIES
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL CUT OFF THE COLD LAKE BREEZE...AND WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 5C
COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OUR NORTH
AND BREAKS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN NORTH A BIT EARLIER.

ORIGINAL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE
AREAS HOWEVER WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST
TO OUR NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST
IN CASE. OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OUR NORTH
AND BREAKS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN NORTH A BIT EARLIER.

ORIGINAL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE
AREAS HOWEVER WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST
TO OUR NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST
IN CASE. OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS HOWEVER
WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST TO OUR
NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE
AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST IN CASE.
OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC





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