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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181813
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
113 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP SHALLOW INVERSION NEAR 860 MB WHICH IS TOO
LOW TO PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO FOR TODAY WE MAY
GET A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND THE WESTERN SYSTEM
MAY SPREAD A LITTLE SNOW OR VIRGA ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR US 30
LATE IN THE DAY JUST BEFORE SUNSET.

WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLE TO ERI WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP SHALLOW INVERSION NEAR 860 MB WHICH IS TOO
LOW TO PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO FOR TODAY WE MAY
GET A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND THE WESTERN SYSTEM
MAY SPREAD A LITTLE SNOW OR VIRGA ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR US 30
LATE IN THE DAY JUST BEFORE SUNSET.

WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLE TO ERI WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180850
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL PA.  AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES.  EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180850
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL PA.  AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES.  EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 180009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 172301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 172301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 172041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING STRUNG OUT A BIT AS
IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN
THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND THE OBSERVED UPSTREAM DATA...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK
RIGHT NEAR ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN
ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE
INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 172041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING STRUNG OUT A BIT AS
IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN
THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND THE OBSERVED UPSTREAM DATA...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK
RIGHT NEAR ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN
ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE
INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND SYNOPTIC PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 AM. SOME BANDED LIGHT COLD ADVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT MIDDAY BUT IT DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
ANY TRUE LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN
MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
DECREASING TREND TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE
NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND SYNOPTIC PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 AM. SOME BANDED LIGHT COLD ADVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT MIDDAY BUT IT DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
ANY TRUE LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN
MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
DECREASING TREND TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE
NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 170449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT
BUT ANY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE AS A TROF
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A MIX OF MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND THEN START DECREASING BY LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT
TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET










000
FXUS61 KCLE 170205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES ESE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE
SNOWBELT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT
BUT ANY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE AS A TROF
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A MIX OF MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND THEN START DECREASING BY LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT
TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET











000
FXUS61 KCLE 170000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT NEAR TOL ESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MOST
OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN TO SHIFT INTO THE SNOWBELT BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT
BUT ANY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE AS A TROF
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A MIX OF MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND THEN START DECREASING BY LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT
TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT NEAR TOL ESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MOST
OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN TO SHIFT INTO THE SNOWBELT BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT
BUT ANY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE AS A TROF
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A MIX OF MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND THEN START DECREASING BY LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT
TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KCLE 162302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT NEAR TOL ESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MOST
OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN TO SHIFT INTO THE SNOWBELT BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEVOER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ALBE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FORTHE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET











000
FXUS61 KCLE 162302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT NEAR TOL ESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MOST
OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN TO SHIFT INTO THE SNOWBELT BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEVOER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ALBE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FORTHE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET












000
FXUS61 KCLE 162029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ENE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WILL
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRYING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO THE AREA BUT STILL
THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR PRECIP...RAIN
IS LIGHT BUT STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH CAT POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS
CENTRAL AND WEST. BY 03Z WILL TAKE POPS DOWN TO CHANCE WEST HALF
TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA...TAPERING FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.






&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KCLE 162029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ENE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WILL
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRYING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO THE AREA BUT STILL
THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR PRECIP...RAIN
IS LIGHT BUT STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH CAT POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS
CENTRAL AND WEST. BY 03Z WILL TAKE POPS DOWN TO CHANCE WEST HALF
TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA...TAPERING FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.






&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL LWR MI WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS
STILL ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH WINDS AT TOL 250 WHILE
CLE AND CAK ARE FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION IN GRAPHICS WITH CAT POPS MAINLY EAST.
ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO TO AFFECT TOL AND THE
PULL NE.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL LWR MI WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS
STILL ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH WINDS AT TOL 250 WHILE
CLE AND CAK ARE FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION IN GRAPHICS WITH CAT POPS MAINLY EAST.
ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO TO AFFECT TOL AND THE
PULL NE.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE CLOUDS TO LIFT FROM IFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE WESTERN 2/3. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. ERI IS VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND
CREATING A SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE EFFECT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE SITE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LIFT OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY 12Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO WED AND THU ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL LWR MI WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS
STILL ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH WINDS AT TOL 250 WHILE
CLE AND CAK ARE FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION IN GRAPHICS WITH CAT POPS MAINLY EAST.
ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO TO AFFECT TOL AND THE
PULL NE.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL LWR MI WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS
STILL ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH WINDS AT TOL 250 WHILE
CLE AND CAK ARE FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION IN GRAPHICS WITH CAT POPS MAINLY EAST.
ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO TO AFFECT TOL AND THE
PULL NE.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF THE LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO WRN OHIO WITH WINDS AT LIMA
260 WHILE MFD AND MNN ARE FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE TO
ZZV WITH ANOTHER AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NERN
INDIANA ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO MOVE THESE TO AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN
GRAPHICS WITH THE FIRST BAND AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA INTO AFTERNOON WITH CAT POPS. ALSO ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREA
OF RAIN TO ROTATE BACK ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND THE PULL NE. ALSO MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF THE LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO WRN OHIO WITH WINDS AT LIMA
260 WHILE MFD AND MNN ARE FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE TO
ZZV WITH ANOTHER AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NERN
INDIANA ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO MOVE THESE TO AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN
GRAPHICS WITH THE FIRST BAND AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA INTO AFTERNOON WITH CAT POPS. ALSO ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREA
OF RAIN TO ROTATE BACK ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND THE PULL NE. ALSO MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161203
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF A LULL THERE WILL BE IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WILL BE
EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW OHIO...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 161203
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF A LULL THERE WILL BE IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WILL BE
EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW OHIO...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 160917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WILL BE
EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW OHIO...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WILL BE
EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW OHIO...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS
HOW LONG OF A GAP WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THE JET ENERGY SURGING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING
FILLS THIS GAP IN FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS
HOW LONG OF A GAP WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THE JET ENERGY SURGING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING
FILLS THIS GAP IN FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160457
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FOR THE 930 UPDATE..

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160457
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FOR THE 930 UPDATE..

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160457
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FOR THE 930 UPDATE..

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NE OH AND NW PA HAVE JUST ABOUT
DECREASED. THE RAIN AREA WAS EXPANDING EAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME QUESTION IF CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DON`T
THINK SO. WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE CEILINGS SOME LATE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160222
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FOR THE 930 UPDATE..

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW PA AND NE OH EXPANDED BACK WEST TO CLE
AND WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST BY 03Z AS THE FLOW INCREASES.
AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE TOL AND FDY AREAS BY 05Z AND THEN
SPREADS EAST. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR 3SM AND THEN THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 FEET IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION ON THAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 152353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW PA AND NE OH EXPANDED BACK WEST TO CLE
AND WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST BY 03Z AS THE FLOW INCREASES.
AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE TOL AND FDY AREAS BY 05Z AND THEN
SPREADS EAST. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR 3SM AND THEN THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 FEET IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION ON THAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 152353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-KCMH. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW PA AND NE OH EXPANDED BACK WEST TO CLE
AND WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST BY 03Z AS THE FLOW INCREASES.
AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE TOL AND FDY AREAS BY 05Z AND THEN
SPREADS EAST. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR 3SM AND THEN THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 FEET IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION ON THAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 152336
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-LCMH.  EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF CIGS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRY AND
IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP BACK INTO IFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE TOL AND FDY AREA BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS MFD...CLE AND CAK AROUND 05 TO 08Z AND
FINALLY INTO YNG AND ERI AROUND 08Z TO 11Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY 10
KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME THRU 18Z TUE WHILE VEERING FROM SE TO
S OR SW THIS EVENING THRU MIDDAY TUE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 152336
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-LCMH.  EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF CIGS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRY AND
IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP BACK INTO IFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE TOL AND FDY AREA BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS MFD...CLE AND CAK AROUND 05 TO 08Z AND
FINALLY INTO YNG AND ERI AROUND 08Z TO 11Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY 10
KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME THRU 18Z TUE WHILE VEERING FROM SE TO
S OR SW THIS EVENING THRU MIDDAY TUE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







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