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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280245
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1045 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280010
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED ACCUMS THROUGH THE EVENING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WHERE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO PUT IN A 1 TO 2 ACCUM
ACROSS NWRN PA. DRY AIR STILL COMING IN THROUGH SO EVENTUALLY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280010
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED ACCUMS THROUGH THE EVENING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WHERE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO PUT IN A 1 TO 2 ACCUM
ACROSS NWRN PA. DRY AIR STILL COMING IN THROUGH SO EVENTUALLY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THE LAKE WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. HOWEVER LORAIN AND MEDINA COUNTY
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THE LAKE WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. HOWEVER LORAIN AND MEDINA COUNTY
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271127
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
727 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MAINLY OVER EXTREME
NW OH ALL OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY FLURRIES. SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW
WILL NOT MENTION IT BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND ADD IF IT
NEEDED.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MAINLY OVER EXTREME
NW OH ALL OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY FLURRIES. SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW
WILL NOT MENTION IT BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND ADD IF IT
NEEDED.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURN MOVING ESE NEAR THE THUMB OF MI.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THIS OVER NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OCCURRING WITH THIS WITH ONLY ONE STATION
REPORTING ANY PRECIP BUT WHEN IT GETS TO THE AREA SURFACE TEMPS
WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AND THE SOUNDING IS LACKING ICE.
THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ALSO
CHANGES SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURN MOVING ESE NEAR THE THUMB OF MI.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THIS OVER NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OCCURRING WITH THIS WITH ONLY ONE STATION
REPORTING ANY PRECIP BUT WHEN IT GETS TO THE AREA SURFACE TEMPS
WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AND THE SOUNDING IS LACKING ICE.
THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ALSO
CHANGES SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 262335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 262335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 262335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 262234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 262234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 262234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 262234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST PULLING MOISTURE
EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW
PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST PULLING MOISTURE
EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW
PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1255 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261407
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1007 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE ON DUAL-POL RADAR DATA IS LOCATED FROM WYANDOT
COUNTY TO ERIE COUNTY (OH) AS OF 14Z. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS IN TOLEDO WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. A SLUSHY INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
TIME IT TAPPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS ENTIRE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN GRASSY AREAS FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE. AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.

MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261407
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1007 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE ON DUAL-POL RADAR DATA IS LOCATED FROM WYANDOT
COUNTY TO ERIE COUNTY (OH) AS OF 14Z. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS IN TOLEDO WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. A SLUSHY INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
TIME IT TAPPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS ENTIRE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN GRASSY AREAS FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE. AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.

MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 261048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 261048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN WAS SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG
AND IT SHOULD BE COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE...SO WE COULD GET A
BURST OF MODERATE WET SNOW. THE SPC SSEO (STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF
OPPORTUNITY) MODEL AGREES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE
WARM SIDE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND
THE QPF IS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 260758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNYSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIG
ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT FIRST LOOK TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS MORE ON THE WARM SIDE.
HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AND THE QPF IS
AROUND HALF AN INCH. FOR THE LAKESHORE WILL GO WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING SNOW...SNOW COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES
AND THEN RAIN OR SNOW AS IT DECREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN. KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE THUNDER THREAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST AT
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.

QPF SHOULD BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN FIELDS. SOME RISES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260533
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260533
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 260533
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260533
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO OR BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND REMAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO AND POSSIBLY
CLEVELAND. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 260438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 260438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 260438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
SKY COVER. THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW IN INCREASING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260225
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFOMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260225
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFOMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 252331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH VALUES IN LOWER MICHIGAN ALREADY IN THE MID 30S AND
EVEN LOWER BACK TO THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW
30S IN NW OHIO BY MORNING WITH THERMAL PROFILES BECOMING MARIGINAL
FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN. EXPECTING SOME WET BULB COOLING AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH IN EXTREME NW OHIO TO NEED TO ADD
A MIX OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST. DID NOT EXPAND THE SNOW EASTWARD
DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW BUT THAT MAY NEED TO HAPPEN NEAR LAKE ERIE
IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. DID TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR
TOMORROW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHING SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 252331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH VALUES IN LOWER MICHIGAN ALREADY IN THE MID 30S AND
EVEN LOWER BACK TO THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW
30S IN NW OHIO BY MORNING WITH THERMAL PROFILES BECOMING MARIGINAL
FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN. EXPECTING SOME WET BULB COOLING AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH IN EXTREME NW OHIO TO NEED TO ADD
A MIX OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST. DID NOT EXPAND THE SNOW EASTWARD
DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW BUT THAT MAY NEED TO HAPPEN NEAR LAKE ERIE
IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. DID TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR
TOMORROW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHING SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 252252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS
WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS
WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS
WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS
WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS
WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251702
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS
NOW PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. STILL
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION.

HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARMEST AIR SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. NUDGES NW OHIO DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
TO 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL STILL REACH 60 DEGREES WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BUT BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 251702
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS
NOW PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. STILL
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION.

HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARMEST AIR SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. NUDGES NW OHIO DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
TO 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL STILL REACH 60 DEGREES WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BUT BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM COVERAGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHRA
MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. WILL
STILL ALLOW LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING. SW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNSET.

SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 07Z THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z ALTHOUGH ERI
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL 14Z. EXPECT MIX OF LOW MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW AROUND TOL
AND MAYBE ALSO AT FDY AND CLE TOWARD 18Z BUT THE PRECIP AT TOL AND
FDY SHOULD BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND THIS TIME AND CLE SOON
AFTER THIS.

.OUTLOOK...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MAINLY SEE NON VFR CONTINUING MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 251643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS
NOW PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. STILL
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION.

HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARMEST AIR SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. NUDGES NW OHIO DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
TO 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL STILL REACH 60 DEGREES WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BUT BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS
NOW PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. STILL
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION.

HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARMEST AIR SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. NUDGES NW OHIO DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
TO 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL STILL REACH 60 DEGREES WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BUT BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251400
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO CLEAR THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BUT DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT. THERE WILL BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ASSIST IN WARMING THE REGION INTO
A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
LOCATED OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251400
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO CLEAR THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BUT DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT. THERE WILL BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ASSIST IN WARMING THE REGION INTO
A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
LOCATED OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPDATED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPDATED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPDATED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPDATED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPTED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPTED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPTED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPTED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250811
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL COME IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250811
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL COME IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES
PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM. EASTERN AREAS WILL STAY COOLER WHILE WESTERN AREAS
WILL START TO CREEP UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO ARRIVE. TWEAKED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO END PRECIPITATION FASTER FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DRY SLOT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...INCLUDING DELAYING
THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SW LOWER MICHIGAN...LIFTING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES ABOVE 900MB. FAIRLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING IF
A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 8K FEET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM
TONIGHT AFTER EARLY LOWS SO THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT
SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER THE RAIN WILL REACH NW PA OR NOT AS THE NEW RUNS HAVE
SLOWED THE PRECIP A LITTLE. MOST OF THE SURGE IN THE ADVANCE OF
THE RAIN WILL COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
INITIAL SURGE WILL BE EVAPORATED. THE STRONG DYNAMICS MAY BRING
SOME THUNDER INTO THE CWA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SHOULD LIFT NE
OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. AS MORE MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE
IN THE MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A
SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA REMAINS. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO A
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE NE.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC WILL WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. SOME AREAS IN THE SE 2/3 COULD SEE AN INCH OF RAIN SO SOME LOW
LYING AREAS AND SMALLER WATERWAYS COULD APPROACH FLOODING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING UNLESS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
CONVECTION RESULTS.

THE SECONDARY FRONT BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...SO ONLY SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED LATER
THU AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR THE NE.
COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN THE FIRST HALF OF THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE
SCT SHRA TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI
SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING LEADING
TO MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. THUS NOT SURE HOW LONG THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY AND HANG ON AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND THE FLOW
WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONG WIND FIELD
ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE COLD LAKE SURFACE
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMER AIR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME ICE DETERIORATION AND ICE MOVEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER OHIO ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY AND A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES
PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM. EASTERN AREAS WILL STAY COOLER WHILE WESTERN AREAS
WILL START TO CREEP UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO ARRIVE. TWEAKED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO END PRECIPITATION FASTER FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DRY SLOT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...INCLUDING DELAYING
THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SW LOWER MICHIGAN...LIFTING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES ABOVE 900MB. FAIRLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING IF
A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 8K FEET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM
TONIGHT AFTER EARLY LOWS SO THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT
SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER THE RAIN WILL REACH NW PA OR NOT AS THE NEW RUNS HAVE
SLOWED THE PRECIP A LITTLE. MOST OF THE SURGE IN THE ADVANCE OF
THE RAIN WILL COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
INITIAL SURGE WILL BE EVAPORATED. THE STRONG DYNAMICS MAY BRING
SOME THUNDER INTO THE CWA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SHOULD LIFT NE
OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. AS MORE MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE
IN THE MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A
SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA REMAINS. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO A
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE NE.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC WILL WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. SOME AREAS IN THE SE 2/3 COULD SEE AN INCH OF RAIN SO SOME LOW
LYING AREAS AND SMALLER WATERWAYS COULD APPROACH FLOODING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING UNLESS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
CONVECTION RESULTS.

THE SECONDARY FRONT BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...SO ONLY SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED LATER
THU AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR THE NE.
COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN THE FIRST HALF OF THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE
SCT SHRA TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI
SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING LEADING
TO MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. THUS NOT SURE HOW LONG THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY AND HANG ON AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND THE FLOW
WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONG WIND FIELD
ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE COLD LAKE SURFACE
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMER AIR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME ICE DETERIORATION AND ICE MOVEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER OHIO ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY AND A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES
PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM. EASTERN AREAS WILL STAY COOLER WHILE WESTERN AREAS
WILL START TO CREEP UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO ARRIVE. TWEAKED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO END PRECIPITATION FASTER FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DRY SLOT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...INCLUDING DELAYING
THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SW LOWER MICHIGAN...LIFTING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES ABOVE 900MB. FAIRLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING IF
A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 8K FEET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM
TONIGHT AFTER EARLY LOWS SO THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT
SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER THE RAIN WILL REACH NW PA OR NOT AS THE NEW RUNS HAVE
SLOWED THE PRECIP A LITTLE. MOST OF THE SURGE IN THE ADVANCE OF
THE RAIN WILL COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
INITIAL SURGE WILL BE EVAPORATED. THE STRONG DYNAMICS MAY BRING
SOME THUNDER INTO THE CWA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SHOULD LIFT NE
OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. AS MORE MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE
IN THE MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A
SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA REMAINS. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO A
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE NE.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC WILL WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. SOME AREAS IN THE SE 2/3 COULD SEE AN INCH OF RAIN SO SOME LOW
LYING AREAS AND SMALLER WATERWAYS COULD APPROACH FLOODING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING UNLESS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
CONVECTION RESULTS.

THE SECONDARY FRONT BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...SO ONLY SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED LATER
THU AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR THE NE.
COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN THE FIRST HALF OF THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE
SCT SHRA TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI
SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING LEADING
TO MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. THUS NOT SURE HOW LONG THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY AND HANG ON AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND THE FLOW
WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONG WIND FIELD
ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE COLD LAKE SURFACE
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMER AIR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME ICE DETERIORATION AND ICE MOVEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER OHIO ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY AND A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES
PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM. EASTERN AREAS WILL STAY COOLER WHILE WESTERN AREAS
WILL START TO CREEP UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO ARRIVE. TWEAKED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO END PRECIPITATION FASTER FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DRY SLOT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...INCLUDING DELAYING
THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SW LOWER MICHIGAN...LIFTING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES ABOVE 900MB. FAIRLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING IF
A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 8K FEET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM
TONIGHT AFTER EARLY LOWS SO THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT
SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER THE RAIN WILL REACH NW PA OR NOT AS THE NEW RUNS HAVE
SLOWED THE PRECIP A LITTLE. MOST OF THE SURGE IN THE ADVANCE OF
THE RAIN WILL COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
INITIAL SURGE WILL BE EVAPORATED. THE STRONG DYNAMICS MAY BRING
SOME THUNDER INTO THE CWA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SHOULD LIFT NE
OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. AS MORE MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE
IN THE MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A
SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA REMAINS. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO A
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE NE.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC WILL WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. SOME AREAS IN THE SE 2/3 COULD SEE AN INCH OF RAIN SO SOME LOW
LYING AREAS AND SMALLER WATERWAYS COULD APPROACH FLOODING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING UNLESS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
CONVECTION RESULTS.

THE SECONDARY FRONT BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...SO ONLY SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED LATER
THU AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR THE NE.
COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN THE FIRST HALF OF THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE
SCT SHRA TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI
SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING LEADING
TO MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. THUS NOT SURE HOW LONG THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY AND HANG ON AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY
TOLEDO. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.
THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS JUST YET.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT EAST- NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
SSW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND THE FLOW
WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONG WIND FIELD
ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE COLD LAKE SURFACE
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMER AIR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME ICE DETERIORATION AND ICE MOVEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER OHIO ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY AND A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







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