000
FXUS61 KCLE 182345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE A FEW LOW END VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING
BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE BETWEEN TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 182210
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181900
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE
CWA...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER BACK BEHIND THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED BEHIND THE FRONT SO DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO LAKESHORE SHOULD BE DRY
REST OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AWAY
THAT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WITH
THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181613
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE CWA...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER BACK
BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS DECREASED BEHIND THE FORNT SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO LAKESHORE SHOULD
BE DRY REST OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AWAY
THAT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WITH
THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181528
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1128 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON DEWPOINTS...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY SOUTH
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THE REST
OF THE DAY. PATCHY STRATUS AROUND TOL AND NW PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MIXING INCREASES NEW HOUR OR TWO.
S/W DROPPING SE TOWARD SW OH LATE TODAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE/NNE WIND SHOULD PROTECT THE LAKESHORE FROM ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES.
WITH THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181323
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON DEWPOINTS...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY SOUTH
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THE REST
OF THE DAY. PATCHY STRATUS AROUND TOL AND NW PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MIXING INCREASES NEW HOUR OR TWO.
S/W DROPPING SE TOWARD SW OH LATE TODAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE/NNE WIND SHOULD PROTECT THE LAKESHORE FROM ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181056
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
656 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
EDINBORO IN NW PA TO FINDLAY. UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND H8 FRONT LAGGING. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY MORNING
MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181029
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
EDINBORO IN NW PA TO FINDLAY. UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND H8 FRONT LAGGING. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
TOLEDO TO BUFFALO. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THERE WILL REMAIN SOME
CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS MORNING
SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180456
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS NE OHIO/NW PA. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED BOW SIGNATURE CAN
BE OBSERVED ON RADAR WITH 40+ KNOTS INBOUND ON THE KCLE RADAR AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT IN NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL BE
OVERCAST AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180213
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS NE OHIO/NW PA. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED BOW SIGNATURE CAN
BE OBSERVED ON RADAR WITH 40+ KNOTS INBOUND ON THE KCLE RADAR AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT IN NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL BE
OVERCAST AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER MICHIGAN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WORSE THAN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT A BRIEF IFR COULD BE
REACHED IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 172329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE LARGELY ENDED ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH NE
OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LOWER OVER THERE BUT ONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS ACROSS NW OHIO BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE- DEVELOP AT THAT TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER MICHIGAN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WORSE THAN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT A BRIEF IFR COULD BE
REACHED IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 172217
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE LARGELY ENDED ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH NE
OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LOWER OVER THERE BUT ONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS ACROSS NW OHIO BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE- DEVELOP AT THAT TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PRECIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171923
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE
88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AND
HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY FORM. AS A RESULT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE AND COULD EVENTUALLY
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP COULD GET AN
INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO THE STORMS SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING REALLY LACKING
TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT THE NW END OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE STORMS WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PREIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171720
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO CLOUDS.
TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY AND THEN
MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS...STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST
NOTABLY WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE
VISIBILITIES ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING
MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO
ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE.
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY.
WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE
AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO
ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY.
SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY
INTO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT ALOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PREIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO CLOUDS.
TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY AND THEN
MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS...STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST
NOTABLY WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE
VISIBILITIES ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING
MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO
ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE.
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY.
WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE
AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO
ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY.
SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY
INTO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS MVFR
ALTHOUGH LIFR AT KCAK AND KYNG. FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
THIS MORNING BUT AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THRU
14Z AT KYNG AND KCAK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET ALTHOUGH LOCAL CUMULUS SCHEME SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO MUCH OF AREA AFTER 04Z ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171055
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST NOTABLY
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE VISIBILITIES
ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH
NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING MID AND UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH...BUT
IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. SHOULD NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY. WILL BRING LOW
PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE AFTER 5P AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO ONTARIO
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL WESTERLY
FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SO WILL
TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY INTO THE
MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS MVFR
ALTHOUGH LIFR AT KCAK AND KYNG. FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
THIS MORNING BUT AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THRU
14Z AT KYNG AND KCAK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET ALTHOUGH LOCAL CUMULUS SCHEME SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO MUCH OF AREA AFTER 04Z ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171039
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST NOTABLY
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE VISIBILITIES
ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH
NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING MID AND UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH...BUT
IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. SHOULD NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY. WILL BRING LOW
PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE AFTER 5P AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO ONTARIO
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL WESTERLY
FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SO WILL
TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY INTO THE
MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KFKL-KYNG-KCAK-KMFD-
KFWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY 08Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTOL VCNTY. EXPECTING FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
TOOK MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM 09-13Z. ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO KCLE
KCAK KYNG AND KERI AFTER 04Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 170759
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A
SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH
FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED
THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING
THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A
GOOD PART OF TODAY. WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA
AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS.
THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KFKL-KYNG-KCAK-KMFD-
KFWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY 08Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTOL VCNTY. EXPECTING FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
TOOK MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM 09-13Z. ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO KCLE
KCAK KYNG AND KERI AFTER 04Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 170506
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARA OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA UNTIL
ABOUT 2 AM OR SO UNTIL THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHES
OF MID CLOUDS MAY RETURN BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AND RURAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS WILL DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE COOLER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KFKL-KYNG-KCAK-KMFD-
KFWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY 08Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTOL VCNTY. EXPECTING FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
TOOK MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM 09-13Z. ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO KCLE
KCAK KYNG AND KERI AFTER 04Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 170246
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1046 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARA OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA UNTIL
ABOUT 2 AM OR SO UNTIL THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHES
OF MID CLOUDS MAY RETURN BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AND RURAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS WILL DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE COOLER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES FROM
ABOUT AKRON CANTON THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS AT 250 DEGREES AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY AND THEN DOWN TO SOME MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET
AT CLEVELAND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 170159
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE LAKE. STILL COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF I-71 BUT HOPING THAT THINGS
QUIET DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW
OHIO AND DID NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO WORK ON THE SKY COVER. WILL TRY
AND CATCH IT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE AROUND 11 PM. I SUPPOSE A LITTLE
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND RURAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT
RAINED THIS EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS
WITH UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES FROM
ABOUT AKRON CANTON THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS AT 250 DEGREES AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY AND THEN DOWN TO SOME MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET
AT CLEVELAND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 162347
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE 623 PM UPDATE CHANGED "CHANCE" TO "SCATTERED" FOR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (SOUTH OF MEDINA) FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
SENT THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY. MADE A SMALL CHANGE
FROM "SLIGHT CHANCE" TO "CHANCE" ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SOUTH OF AKRON) WHERE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A DIMINISHING OF THE CLOUDS BY DARK AND TRIED TO MAKE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES FROM
ABOUT AKRON CANTON THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. VFR CONDITIONS
AND WINDS AT 250 DEGREES AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY AND THEN DOWN TO SOME MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET
AT CLEVELAND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 162226
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE 623 PM UPDATE CHANGED "CHANCE" TO "SCATTERED" FOR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (SOUTH OF MEDINA) FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
SENT THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY. MADE A SMALL CHANGE
FROM "SLIGHT CHANCE" TO "CHANCE" ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SOUTH OF AKRON) WHERE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A DIMINISHING OF THE CLOUDS BY DARK AND TRIED TO MAKE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO FDY LINE. IN TAFS
JUST WENT VCSH. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. SHOULD
ALSO BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR MAY LEAD TO SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 162110
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
510 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SENT THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY. MADE A SMALL CHANGE
FROM "SLIGHT CHANCE" TO "CHANCE" ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SOUTH OF AKRON) WHERE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A DIMINISHING OF THE CLOUDS BY DARK AND TRIED TO MAKE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO FDY LINE. IN TAFS
JUST WENT VCSH. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. SHOULD
ALSO BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR MAY LEAD TO SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161905
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMFD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO EXCEED 30
PERCENT. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA.
SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BY SUNSET EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. WILL TRY TO MAKE
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO FDY LINE. IN TAFS
JUST WENT VCSH. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. SHOULD
ALSO BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR MAY LEAD TO SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161727
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
127 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AS NEEDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR NOW BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT BY MID
AFTERNOON THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
U.S. 30 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO FDY LINE. IN TAFS
JUST WENT VCSH. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. SHOULD
ALSO BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR MAY LEAD TO SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161332
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
932 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AS NEEDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR NOW BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT BY MID
AFTERNOON THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
U.S. 30 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WERE/ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. COULD VERY
WELL SEE NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND/OR A
PROLONGING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. TOLEDO MAY BE IN THE CLEAR
ALREADY. THUNDER CHANCES UNCERTAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND FRONT IS WEAKENING.
CEILINGS...EVEN WITHIN THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE LARGELY VFR.
STILL WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
SHOULD DEVELOP A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO VFR
LATER TODAY. WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161137
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. TRIPLE POINT IS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS
SRN LOWER MI WITH CONVECTION IN A NORTH/SOUTH LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT AND AN EAST/WEST LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE
NORTH/SOUTH LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ADDITIONAL CELLS TO THE SOUTH AS IT DOES. THE COLD FRONTAL BAND
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAPERING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NO BE TOO
QUICK TO COMPLETELY END THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WERE/ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. COULD VERY
WELL SEE NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND/OR A
PROLONGING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. TOLEDO MAY BE IN THE CLEAR
ALREADY. THUNDER CHANCES UNCERTAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND FRONT IS WEAKENING.
CEILINGS...EVEN WITHIN THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE LARGELY VFR.
STILL WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
SHOULD DEVELOP A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO VFR
LATER TODAY. WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 160741
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. TRIPLE POINT IS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS
SRN LOWER MI WITH CONVECTION IN A NORTH/SOUTH LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT AND AN EAST/WEST LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE
NORTH/SOUTH LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ADDITIONAL CELLS TO THE SOUTH AS IT DOES. THE COLD FRONTAL BAND
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAPERING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NO BE TOO
QUICK TO COMPLETELY END THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH IT WILL BE
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HIT OR MISS AS PRIMARY
BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE CROSSING AT A DIURNAL MINIMA. HAVE VCTS
ACROSS THE WEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING IF ONGOING TS CAN PERSIST.
MAY NEED THUNDER FOR CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL BE YET
TO PASS AND AREA MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW JUST
HAVE VCSH. WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL IFR
WITHIN ANY TS. A WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN BR AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 160538
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES
AND THE UPWARD MOTION INCREASES AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
STEEP BUT GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS AND THE HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM
THINK THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S WILL SLOWLY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SO LOWS
WILL HOLD IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR RURAL AREAS OF INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL DIP BELOW ZERO WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MEANS THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TONIGHT. THINGS ARE FORECAST TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
STRONG STORMS. RIGHT NOW THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS. THINGS WILL THEN DRY OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BUT A DISTINCT
AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S...RECOVERING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STARTING
TO SNEAK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH IT WILL BE
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HIT OR MISS AS PRIMARY
BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE CROSSING AT A DIURNAL MINIMA. HAVE VCTS
ACROSS THE WEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING IF ONGOING TS CAN PERSIST.
MAY NEED THUNDER FOR CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL BE YET
TO PASS AND AREA MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW JUST
HAVE VCSH. WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL IFR
WITHIN ANY TS. A WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN BR AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC
000
FXUS61 KCLE 160235
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES
AND THE UPWARD MOTION INCREASES AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
STEEP BUT GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS AND THE HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM
THINK THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S WILL SLOWLY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SO LOWS
WILL HOLD IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR RURAL AREAS OF INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL DIP BELOW ZERO WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MEANS THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TONIGHT. THINGS ARE FORECAST TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
STRONG STORMS. RIGHT NOW THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS. THINGS WILL THEN DRY OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BUT A DISTINCT
AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S...RECOVERING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STARTING
TO SNEAK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT EVERYTHING ON THE LOCAL RADAR IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
FROM IOWA SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER FOR
TONIGHT...BUT FOR TAFS ONLY MENTIONED VCTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
000
FXUS61 KCLE 160057
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE SPENT JUST MOISTENING UP THE AIR MASS. THE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...MOSTLY SPRINKLES... BUT HAVE MADE GOOD
PROGRESS. WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN...IT WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. UPDATED THE EVENING
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DISTINCT BREAK IN THE SHOWERS FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER RAIN THREAT COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING... WHEN THE WEAK
FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES AND THE UPWARD MOTION INCREASES AS
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP BUT GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS THINK THAT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT SO LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S
EXCEPT FOR RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL DIP BELOW ZERO WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MEANS THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TONIGHT. THINGS ARE FORECAST TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
STRONG STORMS. RIGHT NOW THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS. THINGS WILL THEN DRY OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BUT A DISTINCT
AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S...RECOVERING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STARTING
TO SNEAK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT EVERYTHING ON THE LOCAL RADAR IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
FROM IOWA SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER FOR
TONIGHT...BUT FOR TAFS ONLY MENTIONED VCTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
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