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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL
THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK MOST AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS WELL.


PREVIOUS...HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ON SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK
OF THIS RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE
WEST...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA/MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL
THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK MOST AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS WELL.


PREVIOUS...HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ON SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK
OF THIS RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE
WEST...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA/MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL
THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK MOST AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS WELL.


PREVIOUS...HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ON SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK
OF THIS RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE
WEST...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA/MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON
SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 242302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON
SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 242302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON
SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON THEN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL START TO DEVELOP NW TO SE FROM 18Z THRU MON EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON
TO BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON
SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL
AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON
SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL
AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 241656
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL
AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241656
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL
AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241656
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OHIO WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KTOL
AREA BUT IN REALITY THIS IS PRECIP ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE CU TO DEVELOP A CIG CLOSER TO 5KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY. POST FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241605
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241605
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGHS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGHS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEWPOINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE
SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS MADE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS CLIPPING THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEWPOINTS STARTING THE DAY
OFF IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOW
LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE
SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEWPOINTS STARTING THE DAY OFF IN THE 35-45
DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA.
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR
HOLDING ON IN THE LOW LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS
IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES TRACKING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARDS
EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO BEHIND
THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT AREA UNTIL
THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE
SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 240822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEWPOINTS STARTING THE DAY OFF IN THE 35-45
DEGREE RANGE WILL CREEP UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA.
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIR
HOLDING ON IN THE LOW LEVELS. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THAT WAS
IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES TRACKING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARDS
EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO BEHIND
THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT AREA UNTIL
THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE
SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240545
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEW POINTS MOST AREAS
SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIR MASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240545
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEW POINTS MOST AREAS
SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIR MASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS
SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS
SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 232302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MAYERS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 232302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MAYERS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 232302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU SUN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH BACK NORTH ON SUN FOR SCT CU TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MAYERS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 231925
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231925
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231925
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 231743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 231537
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231537
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231211
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
811 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO END FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231211
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
811 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO END FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA DRIFTING EAST VERY
SLOWLY. VFR INTO SUNDAY. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE ERIE...
SPECIFICALLY AT KERI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KCLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230823
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.
FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY IN CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN COUNTIES
BUT HAVE SEEN A FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S SO WILL
HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20 POP LATE AS SOME MOISTURE
STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE
FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE
ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW
PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND
WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS/TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW
PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND
WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS/TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW
PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS. CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT WILL REACH THE EAST PART OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND
WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ010>013-020>023-
     031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW
PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS. CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT WILL REACH THE EAST PART OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND
WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ010>013-020>023-
     031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT
LOOKS AS IF LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO
INLAND NW PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET
AFTER SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
GREATEST FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST
TO THE LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS. CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT WILL REACH THE EAST PART OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT
LOOKS AS IF LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO
INLAND NW PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET
AFTER SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
GREATEST FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST
TO THE LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS. CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT WILL REACH THE EAST PART OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST
FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND ARE
LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMED
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND DEW POINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US DRAWS GOMEX MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED
PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST
FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND ARE
LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMED
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND DEW POINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US DRAWS GOMEX MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED
PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST
FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND ARE
LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMED
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND DEW POINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US DRAWS GOMEX MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED
PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
109 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
109 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
109 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221119
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
719 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221119
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
719 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221119
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
719 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221119
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
719 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POP JUST A BIT WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE BETTER
DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR RETURNS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR NO MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220921
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
521 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR
RETURNS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... AND PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS
WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL
JUST CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220921
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
521 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED RELATIVELY SMALL AND FAST MOVING RADAR
RETURNS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... AND PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS
WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL
JUST CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME FLEETING RADAR RETURNS...RELATIVELY FAST MOVING... AND
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE AND SEE
IF THERE IS A REASON TO GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POP ANYWHERE.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME FLEETING RADAR RETURNS...RELATIVELY FAST MOVING... AND
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE AND SEE
IF THERE IS A REASON TO GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POP ANYWHERE.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME FLEETING RADAR RETURNS...RELATIVELY FAST MOVING... AND
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE AND SEE
IF THERE IS A REASON TO GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POP ANYWHERE.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME FLEETING RADAR RETURNS...RELATIVELY FAST MOVING... AND
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE AND SEE
IF THERE IS A REASON TO GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POP ANYWHERE.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. AS CLEAR AS IT IS LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. AS CLEAR AS IT IS LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. AS CLEAR AS IT IS LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. AS CLEAR AS IT IS LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








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