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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041259
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041259
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041259
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041259
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5K FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY NORTHERN OHIO.
KERI CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TS THIS
EVENING...WITH 30 POPS. FROM CLEVELAND EAST...MAINLY LOOKING AT
AN UPTICK IN CIRRUS WITH THE TROF. TUE EVENING THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE THICKEST OVER NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040832
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040832
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040832
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GETS NUDGED EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY
PASSING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NW PA WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE MAY REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AGAIN OF FRIDAY. ITS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH AS WELL.

IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUFFER THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70`S BOTH DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
OHIO. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OHIO. AFTER THIS
POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
EVERYTHING THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
MOISTURE AND QPF TO LINGER AS SURFACE FEATURES BECOMES WASHED OUT.
IN ORDER TO COVER BOTH SCENARIOS WENT WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH DAY 7. AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP SEEMS WARRANTED
WITH GENERAL TROFING ALOFT...WHICH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WELL. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80`S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A BORDERLINE
MODERATE RISK FOR SWIMMING AT PRESQUE ISLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
WAVE ACTION GETTING INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. IN
GENERAL WE`RE LOOKING AT 3 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SFC TROF AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR
LESS IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT CATEGORY IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW EXITING OH INTO PA. DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO
THE 50`S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. TUE EXPECT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FEET
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. BY 00Z ANOTHER TROF/WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN OHIO. KERI HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA...WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT KCLE...KCAK...AND
KYNG...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF. TUE
EVENING THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKIES
WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032303
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND HAVE ADDED A
PRECIP MENTION TO NW PA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP
INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A
KMNN- KCLE LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032303
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND HAVE ADDED A
PRECIP MENTION TO NW PA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP
INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A
KMNN- KCLE LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032226
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND HAVE ADDED A
PRECIP MENTION TO NW PA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP
INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A
KMNN- KCLE LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032226
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND HAVE ADDED A
PRECIP MENTION TO NW PA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP
INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A
KMNN- KCLE LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032226
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND HAVE ADDED A
PRECIP MENTION TO NW PA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP
INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A
KMNN- KCLE LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031747
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031538
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031538
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031346
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY POP AND WX GRIDS. OLD CONVECTIVE ANVIL
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST CONVECTIVE CU CAN REFORM
AND SHOWERS/TSTMS REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STILL
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOING WITH MORNING ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA FROM NEAR THE THUMB OF MI SW TO
NEAR SOUTH BEND INDIANA. AREA FOR CONCERN FOR CONVECTION WILL
INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A KCLE- KMNN LINE FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW CAPES REACH 2900 J/KG AT KCAK BY
6PM. BACKED OFF LIKELY AS BEST CAPES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031346
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY POP AND WX GRIDS. OLD CONVECTIVE ANVIL
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST CONVECTIVE CU CAN REFORM
AND SHOWERS/TSTMS REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STILL
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOING WITH MORNING ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA FROM NEAR THE THUMB OF MI SW TO
NEAR SOUTH BEND INDIANA. AREA FOR CONCERN FOR CONVECTION WILL
INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A KCLE- KMNN LINE FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW CAPES REACH 2900 J/KG AT KCAK BY
6PM. BACKED OFF LIKELY AS BEST CAPES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
DECREASING QUICKLY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BUT
BELIEVE IT IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. STILL LOOKS AS IF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030839
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
439 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF
THIS WILL MAINLY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON
LINE. HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030839
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
439 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF
THIS WILL MAINLY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON
LINE. HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE PROGS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY START TO DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST
PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND
MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH BUT THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE PROGS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY START TO DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST
PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND
MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH BUT THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE PROGS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY START TO DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST
PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND
MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH BUT THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE PROGS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY START TO DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST
PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND
MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH BUT THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.

LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CAP STILL KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FIRING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. LATE THIS EVENING...
MODELS SHOW A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
APPEARS TO CONTINUE MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER 05Z EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST
CHANCE TO REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CAP STILL KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FIRING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. LATE THIS EVENING...
MODELS SHOW A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
APPEARS TO CONTINUE MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER 05Z EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST
CHANCE TO REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED TEXT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED TEXT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED TEXT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE
FIRST MCS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE HURON. ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS
TRAILING THE FIRST AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO LAKE MI FROM WI.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWING 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO ABOVE 2000J/KG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES NEAR 3000. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING
HOWEVER MOST SHOW A CAP AROUND 3500-4000 FEET WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING INTO THE AREA EARLY
EVENING. THIS CAP SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR OFF THE SURFACE. LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 05Z OR SO
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED TEXT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DID GET ADDED TO THE TOLEDO
AREA FOR LATE TODAY ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COME
AFTER 00Z IF NOT EVEN AFTER 04-06Z.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DID GET ADDED TO THE TOLEDO
AREA FOR LATE TODAY ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COME
AFTER 00Z IF NOT EVEN AFTER 04-06Z.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DID GET ADDED TO THE TOLEDO
AREA FOR LATE TODAY ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COME
AFTER 00Z IF NOT EVEN AFTER 04-06Z.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021328
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
928 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM SKY TEMPS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021328
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
928 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM SKY TEMPS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021150
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021150
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021150 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021150 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON...
CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON...
CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON...
CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z/03. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NW OHIO IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DID
INCLUDE A VCSH INTO MFD/CAK PRIOR TO 12Z. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH NO RESTRICTION TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH THE NORTHERN SITES...TOL/CLE/ERI AFTER 00Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
902 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
902 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
902 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
902 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST. BASCIALLY REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 012355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUMPED POPS
ACROSS NW PA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUMPED POPS
ACROSS NW PA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CU. THE CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED
AND THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AT SUNSET. W TO NW FLOW WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING SW. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE DAY SO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 012203
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
WITH SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUMPED POPS
ACROSS NW PA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 012203
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
WITH SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUMPED POPS
ACROSS NW PA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012203
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
WITH SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE BUMPED POPS
ACROSS NW PA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





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