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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR
VISIBILITY RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT
TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR
VISIBILITY RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT
TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR
VISIBILITY RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT
TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR
VISIBILITY RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT
TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN
BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN
BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN
BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN NEW ACTIVITY ALMOST
AT ANY TIME. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN MICHIGAN COULD REACH THE
TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND THE REDEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE REACHING
TOLEDO. NONETHELESS...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND TIMING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY I WOULD BET THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UPS POPS A BIT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHES OF BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NEARLY ANY TIME DURING THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES...REACHING SITES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL TO JUST CARRY VCTS IN THE TERMINAL BUT WILL NEED TO REFINE AS
TIMING BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO THEN FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPED UP THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN NE OH AND NW PA OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE
AS THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST
AREAS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...STILL THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S
LOOK REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030805
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE AS THERE IS
OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND
THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS
FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...STILL THINK
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030805
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. THE AREA IS DRY AGAIN BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN TO FIRE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS POPS SEEM OVERDONE AS THERE IS
OBVIOUSLY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES GETTING INTO THE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND
THEN MOVE INLAND. AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
SO ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
TODAY. WILL END UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND 18 DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS
FLOATING AROUND TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...STILL THINK
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ON THE COOL SIDE. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH A WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BREIFLY DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE BACK NORTH AND WILL SEE A RESUMPTION OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SATURDAY WILL
BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WILL TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.
NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
REALLY THINK PERSISTENCE IN THE WAY TO GO. MAINLY UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH BY
MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY
GROUND FOG OR BR TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST INLAND
SITES 09-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. FOR NOW INCLUDED A VCTS AT
TOL/FDY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CONVECTION GENERALLY WINDING DOWN BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE NEW SHOWERS...ONE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND ONE IN
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THESE AND ANY OTHER SHOWERS THAT MAY
POP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THERE...AGAIN...FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA
NORTHERN LAKE ERIE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH EASTERN ERIE
LAKESHORE...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY. DO EXPECT SOME BR OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E
IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING AFTER THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAIN
TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E
IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING AFTER THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAIN
TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E
IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING AFTER THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAIN
TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E
IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING AFTER THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAIN
TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021726
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021726
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021726
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021726
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE CAPE ABOVE ABOUT 950MB...YET
WITH LITTLE SHEAR. A WEAK CUTOFF AREA OF CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
VERY WEAK COMMA HEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS AREA IS BARELY WITHIN
THE CLE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE/LESSENING INTEREST
AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER FAR NW OH/SE MI THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING WITH SOME
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION A TOUCH
OVER THE TOLEDO AREA AND POINTS S/SE FOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SCATTERED/CHANCE CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THEIR MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TODAY WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A BROKEN WEAK LINE MAY MAKE IT THROUGH KTOL THIS
MORNING...WILL UPDATE THE WESTERN TAFS AS NECESSARY WHILE CONVECTION
EVOLVES ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.  STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. MORE CUMULUS IS
EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA/ZAFF
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE CAPE ABOVE ABOUT 950MB...YET
WITH LITTLE SHEAR. A WEAK CUTOFF AREA OF CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
VERY WEAK COMMA HEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS AREA IS BARELY WITHIN
THE CLE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE/LESSENING INTEREST
AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER FAR NW OH/SE MI THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING WITH SOME
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION A TOUCH
OVER THE TOLEDO AREA AND POINTS S/SE FOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SCATTERED/CHANCE CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THEIR MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TODAY WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A BROKEN WEAK LINE MAY MAKE IT THROUGH KTOL THIS
MORNING...WILL UPDATE THE WESTERN TAFS AS NECESSARY WHILE CONVECTION
EVOLVES ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.  STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. MORE CUMULUS IS
EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA/ZAFF
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE CAPE ABOVE ABOUT 950MB...YET
WITH LITTLE SHEAR. A WEAK CUTOFF AREA OF CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
VERY WEAK COMMA HEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS AREA IS BARELY WITHIN
THE CLE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE/LESSENING INTEREST
AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER FAR NW OH/SE MI THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING WITH SOME
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION A TOUCH
OVER THE TOLEDO AREA AND POINTS S/SE FOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SCATTERED/CHANCE CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THEIR MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TODAY WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A BROKEN WEAK LINE MAY MAKE IT THROUGH KTOL THIS
MORNING...WILL UPDATE THE WESTERN TAFS AS NECESSARY WHILE CONVECTION
EVOLVES ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.  STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. MORE CUMULUS IS
EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA/ZAFF
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE CAPE ABOVE ABOUT 950MB...YET
WITH LITTLE SHEAR. A WEAK CUTOFF AREA OF CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
VERY WEAK COMMA HEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS AREA IS BARELY WITHIN
THE CLE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE/LESSENING INTEREST
AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER FAR NW OH/SE MI THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING WITH SOME
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION A TOUCH
OVER THE TOLEDO AREA AND POINTS S/SE FOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SCATTERED/CHANCE CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THEIR MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TODAY WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A BROKEN WEAK LINE MAY MAKE IT THROUGH KTOL THIS
MORNING...WILL UPDATE THE WESTERN TAFS AS NECESSARY WHILE CONVECTION
EVOLVES ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.  STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. MORE CUMULUS IS
EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA/ZAFF
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND
THIS HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BEFORE
IT GETS EAST OF I-71. AFTER THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH MORE PRECIP THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL
BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A VICINITY
MENTION IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. SOME PATCHY MVFR REMAINS BUT WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY. MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECT BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT BOTH KERI
AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
609 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
609 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ERIE PA FOLKS
I MADE A BLUNDER AND DID NOT INCREASE TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. I INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY TO THE MIDDLE 80S. I DONT ANTICIPATE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND AND INDIANA. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OVER MICHIGAN. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW. ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020524
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020524
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020524
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...CHANGED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST. OTHERWISE
REMOVED THE CHANCE POP FOR CLEVELAND AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES AS
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS DISSIPATED...AND WENT BACK TO ORIGINAL SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 012341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...CHANGED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST. OTHERWISE
REMOVED THE CHANCE POP FOR CLEVELAND AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES AS
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS DISSIPATED...AND WENT BACK TO ORIGINAL SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE LORAIN
CUYAHOGA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES TO CHANCE/SCATTERED.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 012315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE LORAIN
CUYAHOGA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES TO CHANCE/SCATTERED.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ONLY
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MORNING BR AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE LORAIN
CUYAHOGA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES TO CHAMCE/SCATTERED.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE LORAIN
CUYAHOGA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES TO CHAMCE/SCATTERED.

ORIGINAL...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY
AIDED IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS
PRODUCED SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING.
TAKING NOTE OF THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM.
MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL FADE
AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING AND
SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY AIDED
IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS PRODUCED
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING. TAKING NOTE OF
THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM. MUGGY AND WARM
NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL FADE
AS WE NEAR SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT HAD BEEN SITTING AND
SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AND INDIANA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT ONLY AIDED
IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO HAS PRODUCED
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS THIS PAST MORNING. TAKING NOTE OF
THAT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 6AM. MUGGY AND WARM
NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX FROM THIS EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND GET
DRAWN SOUTHEAST AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IMAGINE AGAIN THAT POP UP
SHOWERS/TS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
MODELS OVER PAINTING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOO. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUITE WARM AND HUMID TOO.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 30 PERCENT CHANCES. UPPER SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...BUT AN UPSTREAM MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY HELP. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO UP PRECIP CHANCES YET. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAD WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT THE SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST SO THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WOULD LIKELY
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS/TS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK AND ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
EVENT AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD PROVIDE A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS
THE TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ERODING THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING AVERAGE TO EVEN
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN
LEAVES THE TROUGH MUCH WEAKER...SLOWER...AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE EUROPEAN HAS THE COLD FRONT MORE DIFFUSE LEAVING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
KEY FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS. FOR NOW TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AVERAGE AND WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A
BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE OVERALL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ON LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING IS IMPROVING.
AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY. ONLY TWEAKS TO SKY COVERAGE WITH THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. EVERYTHING ELSE RIGHT ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING IS IMPROVING.
AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY. ONLY TWEAKS TO SKY COVERAGE WITH THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. EVERYTHING ELSE RIGHT ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING
UP AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING
UP AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 011124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING
UP AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING
UP AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO
REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ERIE AND CLEVELAND AND DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECTING MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AGAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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