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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292247
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291744
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 291031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD
COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD
COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
955 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 11C WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF YEAR YOU NEED THE SUN
TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEY ARE SPREADING EAST. AS THE RIDGE AND SOME
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP PREVENT
MUCH FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT EAST OF CLE WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BE THINNER.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
955 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 11C WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF YEAR YOU NEED THE SUN
TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEY ARE SPREADING EAST. AS THE RIDGE AND SOME
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP PREVENT
MUCH FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT EAST OF CLE WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BE THINNER.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN
PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 11C WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF YEAR YOU NEED THE SUN
TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEY ARE SPREADING EAST. AS THE RIDGE AND SOME
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP PREVENT
MUCH FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT EAST OF CLE WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BE THINNER.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN
PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 11C WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF YEAR YOU NEED THE SUN
TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEY ARE SPREADING EAST. AS THE RIDGE AND SOME
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP PREVENT
MUCH FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT EAST OF CLE WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BE THINNER.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT UPDATES
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT UPDATES
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN
PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN
PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280553
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MOISTURE NEAR 4500 FEET AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS NW OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS NW PA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BETTER IN THE EAST. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN CENTRAL/NW OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CLOUDS/FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE LAKE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280553
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MOISTURE NEAR 4500 FEET AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS NW OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS NW PA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BETTER IN THE EAST. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN CENTRAL/NW OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CLOUDS/FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE LAKE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280200
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MOISTURE NEAR 4500 FEET AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS NW OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS NW PA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BETTER IN THE EAST. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN CENTRAL/NW OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CLOUDS/FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE LAKE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM
EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280200
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MOISTURE NEAR 4500 FEET AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS NW OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS NW PA AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BETTER IN THE EAST. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN CENTRAL/NW OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CLOUDS/FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE LAKE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM
EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 272313
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
713 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
THICK AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO NRN OHIO FROM THE WEST SO SKIES
IN THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY RE-DEVELOP IN NW
OHIO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM
EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272313
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
713 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
THICK AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO NRN OHIO FROM THE WEST SO SKIES
IN THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY RE-DEVELOP IN NW
OHIO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM
EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
THICK AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO NRN OHIO FROM THE WEST SO SKIES
IN THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY RE-DEVELOP IN NW
OHIO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 272253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
THICK AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO NRN OHIO FROM THE WEST SO SKIES
IN THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY RE-DEVELOP IN NW
OHIO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL A SLIM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM. AFTER THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL A SLIM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM. AFTER THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS ARE AROUND TO THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MOVEMENT OF THE 8H BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
APPEARS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE REACH MAXIMUM HEATING.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 6 AM WAS LOCATED FROM ERIE TO SOUTH OF CLEVELAND AND
TOLEDO. SOME ISOLATED FOG OUT THERE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
MORNING...TS CHANCES WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD AROUND 70
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND FAIR FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND A
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LOWS/HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT. THESE CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND LEAVES US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BEYOND THAT A FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TIMING SHIFTS AS THE WEEKEND GETS
CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
WORDING SHOULD BE SCATTERED OR LIKELY. CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY
WORDING AS THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS LEANING THAT DIRECTION. FOR MONDAY
JUST CHANCE POPS AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY
CHANCE POPS AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND THE WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BUT IT WILL BE SLOW. AT THIS
TIME KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS MAY BE
STRONGEST THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME STILL
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE LAKE BUT THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

MARINERS BOATING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON THE LAKE
THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. THE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE AND THEN
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GUSTY WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KIELTYKA








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