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000
FXUS61 KCLE 150735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEAKEN...THEN BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH THAT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THRU
06Z TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT UPPER
FORCING TO ACT ON THE POOLED MOISTURE SO THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA SEES MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY
OVER THE NE WHERE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR. THINK QPF WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR SW TO A HALF AN INCH
IN THE NE. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE SOUTH
BUT GENERALLY ONLY LOOKING FOR SHRA.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO BE ADDED. TODAY HIGHS SHOULD SCREAM ALL THE WAY UP INTO A 65 TO
70 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST PLACES. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE QUESTION TUE IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA AS
MOISTURE AT 850 MB AND BELOW IS SHOWN TO BE STILL HANGING OVER THE
AREA. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC FOR SHRA GOING IN THE NE ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR NEAR ERI TUE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SO TUE AND
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TUE EVE AS THE
DAYTIME CU FIELD DISSIPATES.

YET ANOTHER REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT
WITH SOME ADDED LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING THEN RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU
NIGHT.

TEMPS WON`T SHOW TOO MUCH DAILY CHANGE TUE THRU THU BUT WED SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WINDS BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED WILL BE RELATIVELY TOASTY WITH HIGHS
65 TO 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE COLDER NIGHT SHOULD BE TUE NIGHT
AND THU NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40 TO 45. SOME INLAND SPOTS IN THE
EAST AND AROUND MFD COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S IF CLOUDS ARE FEW AND
WINDS CALM DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THESE NIGHT...WHICH IS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EXTENDED PATTERN SHAPING UP TO START OUT AS ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
TREND WILL CHANGE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP
DIGGING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY. AFTER BRIEF WARMUP LEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR ALBERTA
AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL
INTENSIFY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FALL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EARLIER ONSET AND THEN ENDING IN
THE WEST ON SUNDAY EVENING. WILL ADD MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE EAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND MIST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION POST FRONT IN THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND THEN NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
IN THE EAST AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WEST. AS HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WIND WILL TAKE
PLACE FRIDAY AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 150514
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND MIST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION POST FRONT IN THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 150514
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND MIST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION POST FRONT IN THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 150259 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE SO NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA













000
FXUS61 KCLE 150259 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE SO NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA














000
FXUS61 KCLE 150224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE SO NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 150224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE SO NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 142351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING AS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN BROKEN
IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 142351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING AS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN BROKEN
IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 142248
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING AS EXPECTED ALTHROUGH REMAIN BROKEN IN
A FEW AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 142248
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING AS EXPECTED ALTHROUGH REMAIN BROKEN IN
A FEW AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT
I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT
PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO
LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING. THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE
WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT
I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT
PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO
LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING. THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE
WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHES OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SHRINKING BUT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE INVERSION IS
BEING TRAPPED AND STRATIFYING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 30. THINK
WE CAN GET BY WITH "PARTLY SUNNY" ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE FOR
"MOSTLY CLOUDY". TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN THE
NOON READINGS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRAOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHES OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SHRINKING BUT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE INVERSION IS
BEING TRAPPED AND STRATIFYING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 30. THINK
WE CAN GET BY WITH "PARTLY SUNNY" ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE FOR
"MOSTLY CLOUDY". TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN THE
NOON READINGS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRAOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141620
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHES OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SHRINKING BUT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE INVERSION IS
BEING TRAPPED AND STRATIFYING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 30. THINK
WE CAN GET BY WITH "PARTLY SUNNY" ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE FOR
"MOSTLY CLOUDY". TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN THE
NOON READINGS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141620
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHES OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SHRINKING BUT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE INVERSION IS
BEING TRAPPED AND STRATIFYING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 30. THINK
WE CAN GET BY WITH "PARTLY SUNNY" ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE FOR
"MOSTLY CLOUDY". TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN THE
NOON READINGS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IS STARTING
TO MIX OUT BUT THE 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850 MB SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE PATCHES OF
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
EVOLVE INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND WILL CALL IT "PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY". KNOCKED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND TOLEDO
(UPPER 50S) OTHERWISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THE SAME AS
THE EARLIER FORECAST...MOSTLY 60/LOWER 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IS STARTING
TO MIX OUT BUT THE 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850 MB SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE PATCHES OF
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
EVOLVE INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND WILL CALL IT "PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY". KNOCKED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND TOLEDO
(UPPER 50S) OTHERWISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THE SAME AS
THE EARLIER FORECAST...MOSTLY 60/LOWER 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 850 MB HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXPAND THIS CLOUD
COVER IN THE 4500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MODIFIED
MOST LOCATIONS TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE PARTLY SUNNY MAY END UP BEING VERY LATE
IN THE DAY.

SO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE GRIDS. CONCERN NOW IS THAT A LARGER AREA OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
IT REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 850 MB HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXPAND THIS CLOUD
COVER IN THE 4500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MODIFIED
MOST LOCATIONS TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE PARTLY SUNNY MAY END UP BEING VERY LATE
IN THE DAY.

SO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE GRIDS. CONCERN NOW IS THAT A LARGER AREA OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
IT REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 141049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 850 MB HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXPAND THIS CLOUD
COVER IN THE 4500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MODIFIED
MOST LOCATIONS TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE PARTLY SUNNY MAY END UP BEING VERY LATE
IN THE DAY.

SO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE GRIDS. CONCERN NOW IS THAT A LARGER AREA OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
IT REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 141049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 850 MB HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXPAND THIS CLOUD
COVER IN THE 4500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MODIFIED
MOST LOCATIONS TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE PARTLY SUNNY MAY END UP BEING VERY LATE
IN THE DAY.

SO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE GRIDS. CONCERN NOW IS THAT A LARGER AREA OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
IT REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 140820
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
420 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF IT
REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 140820
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
420 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF IT
REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 140540
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT BENEATH A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR JUST A COUPLE HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF I-71. ALSO ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER/WATERSPOUT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY
10-15Z. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING ON SCHEDULE BUT THE WAVES ARE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY AS THE WAVES WERE STILL 3 TO 6 FEET AT
AROUND 10 PM.

A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL MEAN A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE LAKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
NEAR 18C THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW COLD AIR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNELS TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT IS
MARGINAL AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BARELY
ADEQUATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
MARINE FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB





000
FXUS61 KCLE 140540
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT BENEATH A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR JUST A COUPLE HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF I-71. ALSO ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER/WATERSPOUT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY
10-15Z. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LAKE DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR CLE AND ERI OVERNIGHT NEAR 3K-4K FEET. ADDITIONAL
SCT/BKN LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN OH. INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
TAF SITES MOST LIKELY WILL SIT IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT SOME IFR FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR YNG. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING ON SCHEDULE BUT THE WAVES ARE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY AS THE WAVES WERE STILL 3 TO 6 FEET AT
AROUND 10 PM.

A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL MEAN A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE LAKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
NEAR 18C THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW COLD AIR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNELS TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT IS
MARGINAL AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BARELY
ADEQUATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
MARINE FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 140208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1008 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT BENEATH A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR JUST A COUPLE HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF I-71. ALSO ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER/WATERSPOUT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY
10-15Z. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
CLOUD FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE FLOW DECREASING THE
THREAT OF BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET WILL
BE MAINLY AT CLE AND ERI. ELSEWHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE DENSE FOG AT CAK AND YNG...AT
THIS TIME DID NOT GO THAT LOW OF VISIBILITY BUT SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY.
CEILINGS COULD BE NEAR 3000 FEET ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING ON SCHEDULE BUT THE WAVES ARE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY AS THE WAVES WERE STILL 3 TO 6 FEET AT
AROUND 10 PM.

A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL MEAN A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE LAKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
NEAR 18C THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW COLD AIR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNELS TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT IS
MARGINAL AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BARELY
ADEQUATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
MARINE FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 140208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1008 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT BENEATH A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR JUST A COUPLE HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF I-71. ALSO ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER/WATERSPOUT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY
10-15Z. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
CLOUD FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE FLOW DECREASING THE
THREAT OF BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET WILL
BE MAINLY AT CLE AND ERI. ELSEWHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE DENSE FOG AT CAK AND YNG...AT
THIS TIME DID NOT GO THAT LOW OF VISIBILITY BUT SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY.
CEILINGS COULD BE NEAR 3000 FEET ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING ON SCHEDULE BUT THE WAVES ARE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY AS THE WAVES WERE STILL 3 TO 6 FEET AT
AROUND 10 PM.

A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL MEAN A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE LAKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
NEAR 18C THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW COLD AIR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNELS TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT IS
MARGINAL AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BARELY
ADEQUATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
MARINE FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 132350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN MANY AREAS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AND THESE MAY SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
CLOUD FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE FLOW DECREASING THE
THREAT OF BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET WILL
BE MAINLY AT CLE AND ERI. ELSEWHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE DENSE FOG AT CAK AND YNG...AT
THIS TIME DID NOT GO THAT LOW OF VISIBILITY BUT SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY.
CEILINGS COULD BE NEAR 3000 FEET ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 132350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN MANY AREAS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AND THESE MAY SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
CLOUD FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE FLOW DECREASING THE
THREAT OF BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET WILL
BE MAINLY AT CLE AND ERI. ELSEWHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE DENSE FOG AT CAK AND YNG...AT
THIS TIME DID NOT GO THAT LOW OF VISIBILITY BUT SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY.
CEILINGS COULD BE NEAR 3000 FEET ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 132302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN MANY AREAS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AND THESE MAY SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 132302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN MANY AREAS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AND THESE MAY SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A
WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT
TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER
THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 131937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS AND THE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE... WILL KEEP CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT
TIMES GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE AS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY WELL OCCUR BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME OUT OVER
THE LAKE. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...A WATERSPOUT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TEMPS WILL DROP AS FAR AS THEY CAN TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
GIVEN THE DROPPING DEW POINTS...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S. FROST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY
MENTION IT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S AT THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE GIVEN THE LIGHT GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OR EVOLVE FROM THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD STILL END UP
"MOSTLY SUNNY". SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY THIN. GIVEN THE COOL START AND LIGHT WIND WILL NOT GO
AS WARM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NW PA TO THE
MID 60S NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO AND THEN IN
THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCE THE RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. A WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS IT COULD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SINCE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO THICKEN UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAYBE
70 OR SO IF WE GET LUCKY.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS
COOL AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS. NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.  WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.   OVERALL HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES OVER THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH NW FROM OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131711
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
MOST AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. NORTHWEST OHIO MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 131711
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
MOST AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. NORTHWEST OHIO MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD
IS STILL WEST OF CHICAGO...BELIEVE MODELS TOO FAST AT ENDING
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NW OH TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD
WELL BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA SCATTERS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131535
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
MOST AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. NORTHWEST OHIO MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131535
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
MOST AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. NORTHWEST OHIO MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 131422
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM
ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE WE MAY ALREADY BE NEAR THE HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES THERE MAY END UP DROPPING BACK A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THEN RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES. WILL WORK ON THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131422
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE WILL GRADUALLY SHOW UP FARTHER
EAST AS AT LEAST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM
ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE WE MAY ALREADY BE NEAR THE HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES THERE MAY END UP DROPPING BACK A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THEN RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES. WILL WORK ON THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 131142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THIS TROUGH AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST MADE IT IN NW OHIO AS OF 0730Z. EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM THE LAKE SHORE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HAVE
GONE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NW PA IN THE VICINITY OF
ERIE. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR SPILLING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 131142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THIS TROUGH AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST MADE IT IN NW OHIO AS OF 0730Z. EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM THE LAKE SHORE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HAVE
GONE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NW PA IN THE VICINITY OF
ERIE. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR SPILLING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST. CEILINGS DROP BRIEFLY TO 700 FEET AND
POP BACK UP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BETWEEN 1200 FEET AND 2500
FEET. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH BY
EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT CLEVELAND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 130753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THIS TROUGH AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST MADE IT IN NW OHIO AS OF 0730Z. EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM THE LAKESHORE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HAVE
GONE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NW PA IN THE VICINITY OF
ERIE. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR SPILLING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY WEST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 130753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLIDE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THIS TROUGH AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST MADE IT IN NW OHIO AS OF 0730Z. EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM THE LAKESHORE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HAVE
GONE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NW PA IN THE VICINITY OF
ERIE. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR SPILLING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE WILL THEN MONITOR
THE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER EXTREME NE OH
INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

IT WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S FOR PROTECTED INLAND
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO NW PA IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES AS
ANTICIPATED. IT MAY BE WORTH WHILE TO PROTECT ANY TEMPERATURE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IS FOR MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING IN SOME REINFORCING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY WEST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WINDS SHOULD PICKUP OUT OF
THE WEST AND HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT ON THE LAKE FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
EAST. SO WILL ALSO HOIST RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. FLOW DOES WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKES INTO WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 130550
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE RAIN REACHING THE KTOL AREA BY 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIR MASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY WEST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 130550
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE RAIN REACHING THE KTOL AREA BY 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIR MASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY WEST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 130138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE RAIN REACHING THE KTOL AREA BY 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS RANGE FROM ABOUT 2800-3500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES
WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A SWATH OF RAIN NEAR
CHICAGO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CLIPPING NW OHIO AFTER
09Z...AND CLE/ERI TOWARDS 12Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP A LITTLE LOWER WITH
THE SHOWRS. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER
SO INCLUDED VCSH AT THE OTHER SITES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST WITH THE SHOWERS AND
BE BREEZY FOR A TIME THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 130138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE RAIN REACHING THE KTOL AREA BY 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS RANGE FROM ABOUT 2800-3500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES
WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A SWATH OF RAIN NEAR
CHICAGO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CLIPPING NW OHIO AFTER
09Z...AND CLE/ERI TOWARDS 12Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP A LITTLE LOWER WITH
THE SHOWRS. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER
SO INCLUDED VCSH AT THE OTHER SITES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST WITH THE SHOWERS AND
BE BREEZY FOR A TIME THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 122357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PARTS OF
NW PA COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS SOME DRIER AIR
TRIES TO WORK IN FROM LAKE ONTARIO. A NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY
OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF.

OTHERWISE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NW
PA LATE TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING NW OH. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER NW OH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA DRY THROUGH 6 AM...IT COULD BE CLOSE. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN THE SHOWERS. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS RANGE FROM ABOUT 2800-3500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES
WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A SWATH OF RAIN NEAR
CHICAGO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CLIPPING NW OHIO AFTER
09Z...AND CLE/ERI TOWARDS 12Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP A LITTLE LOWER WITH
THE SHOWRS. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER
SO INCLUDED VCSH AT THE OTHER SITES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST WITH THE SHOWERS AND
BE BREEZY FOR A TIME THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 121948
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PARTS OF
NW PA COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS SOME DRIER AIR
TRIES TO WORK IN FROM LAKE ONTARIO. A NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY
OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF.

OTHERWISE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NW
PA LATE TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING NW OH. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER NW OH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA DRY THROUGH 6 AM...IT COULD BE CLOSE. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN THE SHOWERS. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMP INVERSION LOOKS TO STAY TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN MVFR CIGS THRU THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST LATE SAT MORNING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK
TO NW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 121948
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PARTS OF
NW PA COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS SOME DRIER AIR
TRIES TO WORK IN FROM LAKE ONTARIO. A NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY
OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF.

OTHERWISE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NW
PA LATE TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING NW OH. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER NW OH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA DRY THROUGH 6 AM...IT COULD BE CLOSE. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN THE SHOWERS. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POPS ARE TOUGH FOR SATURDAY...WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. WENT WITH SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND INVERTED TROF MOVES EAST...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. THE
MODELS SEEM TOO FAST IN DRYING THINGS OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SOME MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMP AND SHRA CHANCES FOR TUE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER DECENT
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON TUE. A RELATIVELY
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO BE CROSSING THE
AREA WED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHRA BY LATE FRI WHILE TEMPS MAY START TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMP INVERSION LOOKS TO STAY TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN MVFR CIGS THRU THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST LATE SAT MORNING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK
TO NW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TURN N TO
NW SAT THEN BACK TO NE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE BECOMING LIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD SAT WHEN
WINDS COULD GET MORE INTO A 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA WAVES SO THE SITUATION WILL NEED WATCHING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SE
THEN SW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
AROUND MON NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW TO NW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TUE AND WED FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 121703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING
DRIZZLE IS IN THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA. MADE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE NOON READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMP INVERSION LOOKS TO STAY TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN MVFR CIGS THRU THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST LATE SAT MORNING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK
TO NW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...BC











000
FXUS61 KCLE 121703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING
DRIZZLE IS IN THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA. MADE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE NOON READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMP INVERSION LOOKS TO STAY TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN MVFR CIGS THRU THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST LATE SAT MORNING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK
TO NW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PA FROM
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING. NON VFR
LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...BC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 121626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING
DRIZZLE IS IN THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA. MADE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE NOON READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 121626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING
DRIZZLE IS IN THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA. MADE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE NOON READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 121241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
841 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF DRIZZLE TO THE CLE AREA FOR THE MORNING
AND EXPANDED THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE OVER NE OH. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 121241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
841 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF DRIZZLE TO THE CLE AREA FOR THE MORNING
AND EXPANDED THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE OVER NE OH. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 121118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 121118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED BY SATELLITE PICTURES
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MORE BREAKS TO OCCUR WITH SOME VFR BKN
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 121022
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE
IN HEIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 121022
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGING SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAY NOT
DECREASE AT ALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND COOLER NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LIFT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT ABOVE THAT IT IS
RATHER DRY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
BE SLOW TO END WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SPILLING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT ULTIMATELY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE
IN HEIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NW PA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD THE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE NEARLY FLAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








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