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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THEN MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. THE
AIRMASS IS MOIST EAST OF MANSFIELD...HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AND FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
WHILE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AN INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. MENTIONED PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY AREA. LOWS ARE TOUGH DEPENDING ON
THE CLOUD COVER...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. WILL TRY TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THIS TIME GOING WITH A FROPA AT TOL AT 19Z/3PM...00Z 7 PM AT CLE
AND 03Z/11 PM AT ERI.

ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY GOES
ON. IN SOME WAYS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER
WILL BE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER...THE THUNDER
MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...SOME LOCATIONS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN...MOST WILL BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY NOT EXCEPTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLOODING ISSUES.

PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGHS
BUT DID GO WITH WARMER VALUES IN THE EAST BECAUSE IT WILL REMAIN
DRIER LONGER. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FROST IF THE CLOUDS
DECREASE...MAINLY INLAND OF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA
AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON THEN WHETHER THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TUE THRU WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER
SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SHRA AND COOL TEMPS SUN WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHRA SUN NIGHT THRU MON.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR TUE AND WED. WILL STAY
WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR MAINLY THE NE ON TUE THEN BACK TO SLIGHT CHC
FOR WED. TEMPS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN BY WED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
OF 10 DEG C AT 850 MB.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT REST OF AFTERNOON. SOME CU OR
STRATO CU MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT BASED ON MODEL RH
LEVELS. THIS MAY DELAY THE FOG THERE SOME...OTHERWISE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH IFR HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR THE INLAND SITES.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14 TO 15Z THU MORNING LEAVING
MAINLY JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING...NE TO E WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
SOUTH THEN START INCREASING THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EVENTUALLY A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER FRI WILL TURN
THE WINDS TO WSW AND SPEEDS UP TO 30 KNOTS LOOK REASONABLE LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE LATER SAT BUT MAY
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SCA WAVES GOING THRU SUN. A TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE LAKES AROUND MON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BACKING OF THE
WINDS LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THEN MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. THE
AIRMASS IS MOIST EAST OF MANSFIELD...HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AND FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
WHILE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AN INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. MENTIONED PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY AREA. LOWS ARE TOUGH DEPENDING ON
THE CLOUD COVER...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. WILL TRY TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THIS TIME GOING WITH A FROPA AT TOL AT 19Z/3PM...00Z 7 PM AT CLE
AND 03Z/11 PM AT ERI.

ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY GOES
ON. IN SOME WAYS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER
WILL BE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER...THE THUNDER
MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...SOME LOCATIONS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN...MOST WILL BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY NOT EXCEPTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLOODING ISSUES.

PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGHS
BUT DID GO WITH WARMER VALUES IN THE EAST BECAUSE IT WILL REMAIN
DRIER LONGER. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FROST IF THE CLOUDS
DECREASE...MAINLY INLAND OF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA
AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON THEN WHETHER THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TUE THRU WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER
SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SHRA AND COOL TEMPS SUN WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHRA SUN NIGHT THRU MON.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR TUE AND WED. WILL STAY
WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR MAINLY THE NE ON TUE THEN BACK TO SLIGHT CHC
FOR WED. TEMPS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN BY WED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
OF 10 DEG C AT 850 MB.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT REST OF AFTERNOON. SOME CU OR
STRATO CU MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT BASED ON MODEL RH
LEVELS. THIS MAY DELAY THE FOG THERE SOME...OTHERWISE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH IFR HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR THE INLAND SITES.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14 TO 15Z THU MORNING LEAVING
MAINLY JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING...NE TO E WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
SOUTH THEN START INCREASING THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EVENTUALLY A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER FRI WILL TURN
THE WINDS TO WSW AND SPEEDS UP TO 30 KNOTS LOOK REASONABLE LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE LATER SAT BUT MAY
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SCA WAVES GOING THRU SUN. A TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE LAKES AROUND MON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BACKING OF THE
WINDS LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011701
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND SOME THINNING AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY WORDING
SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF IT. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT REST OF AFTERNOON. SOME CU OR
STRATO CU MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT BASED ON MODEL RH
LEVELS. THIS MAY DELAY THE FOG THERE SOME...OTHERWISE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH IFR HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR THE INLAND SITES.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14 TO 15Z THU MORNING LEAVING
MAINLY JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 011701
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND SOME THINNING AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY WORDING
SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF IT. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT REST OF AFTERNOON. SOME CU OR
STRATO CU MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT BASED ON MODEL RH
LEVELS. THIS MAY DELAY THE FOG THERE SOME...OTHERWISE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH IFR HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR THE INLAND SITES.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14 TO 15Z THU MORNING LEAVING
MAINLY JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KCLE 011629
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND SOME THINNING AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY WORDING
SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF IT. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON LAND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE UPDATE AS THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 1015 AM. AT THIS TIME NO ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HIGHS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND.

A CONVERGENT AREA WAS ON THE LAKE AND THAT GENERATED A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THE BAND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON LAND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE UPDATE AS THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 1015 AM. AT THIS TIME NO ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HIGHS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND.

A CONVERGENT AREA WAS ON THE LAKE AND THAT GENERATED A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THE BAND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011038
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIRMASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011038
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIRMASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010836
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
436 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS
PUTTING OUT A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER.
AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY.  MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010836
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
436 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS
PUTTING OUT A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER.
AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY.  MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RECENT DRYING TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RECENT DRYING TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RECENT DRYING TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RECENT DRYING TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 010227
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1027 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
INTO PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NW
LAKE ERIE SO LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND
STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP
ON THE RADAR IN SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH...CHANGED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT TO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 302353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
INTO PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NW
LAKE ERIE SO LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND
STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP
ON THE RADAR IN SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH...CHANGED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT TO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
INTO PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NW
LAKE ERIE SO LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND
STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP
ON THE RADAR IN SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH...CHANGED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT TO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
INTO PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NW
LAKE ERIE SO LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND
STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP
ON THE RADAR IN SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH...CHANGED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT TO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301947 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 301947 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 301938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GKJ TO NEAR
YOUNGSTOWN TO SOUTH OF MANSFIELD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE
FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
NE OH AND NW PA. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN SOME BASED ON THE LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 301700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GKJ TO NEAR
YOUNGSTOWN TO SOUTH OF MANSFIELD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE
FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
NE OH AND NW PA. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN SOME BASED ON THE LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KCLE 301607
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GKJ TO NEAR
YOUNGSTOWN TO SOUTH OF MANSFIELD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE
FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
NE OH AND NW PA. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN SOME BASED ON THE LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST
AND THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301607
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GKJ TO NEAR
YOUNGSTOWN TO SOUTH OF MANSFIELD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE
FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
NE OH AND NW PA. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN SOME BASED ON THE LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST
AND THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED POPS SOME OVER NE OH AND NW PA FOR THIS MORNING. ON THE
EDGE HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME KEPT THE HIGH POPS...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME BY NOON. SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE DAY ARE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT
TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY
FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT. MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A
RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER
TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST
WITH A LITTLE MORNING SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST
AND THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
TAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED POPS SOME OVER NE OH AND NW PA FOR THIS MORNING. ON THE
EDGE HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME KEPT THE HIGH POPS...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME BY NOON. SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE DAY ARE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT
TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY
FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT. MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A
RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER
TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST
WITH A LITTLE MORNING SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST
AND THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMSIN MOIST AND
THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMSIN MOIST AND
THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND THEN ALSO EAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI/NW OH AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300834
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
434 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA ONLY WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300834
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
434 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO THIS MORNING
AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ARRIVED AT TOLEDO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL THE FIRST COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMG CLEARLY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORECAST MODELS
TAKING IT TO NE OH AND SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FROM FDY TO MT VERNON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF THAT.
MENTIONED THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA ONLY WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MI AND
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN TOLEDO
REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER EAST WITH A LITTLE MORNING
SUN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST.
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY"
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300553
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300553
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 292337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OSCODA TO
MUSKINGUM. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
BY MIDNIGHT...AND SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NE OHIO WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER RETURN TO
THE CLOUD COVER...THEN TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT A LITTLE
TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OSCODA TO
MUSKINGUM. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
BY MIDNIGHT...AND SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NE OHIO WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER RETURN TO
THE CLOUD COVER...THEN TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT A LITTLE
TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OSCODA TO
MUSKINGUM. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
BY MIDNIGHT...AND SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NE OHIO WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER RETURN TO
THE CLOUD COVER...THEN TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT A LITTLE
TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OSCODA TO
MUSKINGUM. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
BY MIDNIGHT...AND SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NE OHIO WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER RETURN TO
THE CLOUD COVER...THEN TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT A LITTLE
TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 291919
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 291919
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.
THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE
TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA












000
FXUS61 KCLE 291756
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THEN STALL OVER OHIO BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A THREAT
AFTER 10 AM.

EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS FOR ONE MORE
DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW
PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291756
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THEN STALL OVER OHIO BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A THREAT
AFTER 10 AM.

EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS FOR ONE MORE
DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW
PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THEN STALL OVER OHIO BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A THREAT
AFTER 10 AM.

EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS FOR ONE MORE
DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW
PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG PATCHES ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AT KYNG WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL MID
MORNING TO THIN. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT THEY MAY BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES AND
WILL FORECAST "SHOWERS VICINITY" AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CEILINGS...PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THEN STALL OVER OHIO BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A THREAT
AFTER 10 AM.

EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS FOR ONE MORE
DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW
PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG PATCHES ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AT KYNG WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL MID
MORNING TO THIN. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT THEY MAY BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES AND
WILL FORECAST "SHOWERS VICINITY" AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CEILINGS...PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KCLE 291144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE THE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAD INTERRUPTED
THE FOG...BOUNCING VISIBILITIES AROUND. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
ONLY ONE ASOS SITE/YNG/ HAS HAD VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4SM MILE.
AREA WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. FOG WILL BE AT ITS WORST FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
LASTS FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG PATCHES ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AT KYNG WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL MID
MORNING TO THIN. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT THEY MAY BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES AND
WILL FORECAST "SHOWERS VICINITY" AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CEILINGS...PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE THE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAD INTERRUPTED
THE FOG...BOUNCING VISIBILITIES AROUND. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
ONLY ONE ASOS SITE/YNG/ HAS HAD VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4SM MILE.
AREA WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. FOG WILL BE AT ITS WORST FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
LASTS FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG PATCHES ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AT KYNG WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL MID
MORNING TO THIN. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT THEY MAY BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES AND
WILL FORECAST "SHOWERS VICINITY" AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CEILINGS...PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE THE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAD INTERRUPTED
THE FOG...BOUNCING VISIBILITIES AROUND. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
ONLY ONE ASOS SITE/YNG/ HAS HAD VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4SM MILE.
AREA WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. FOG WILL BE AT ITS WORST FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
LASTS FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE THE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAD INTERRUPTED
THE FOG...BOUNCING VISIBILITIES AROUND. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
ONLY ONE ASOS SITE/YNG/ HAS HAD VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4SM MILE.
AREA WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. FOG WILL BE AT ITS WORST FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
LASTS FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INTERRUPTED THE FOG AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS
FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INTERRUPTED THE FOG AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS
FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OH/INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE NAM COULD INDICATE
SOME MORE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. I DONT ANTICIPATE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE REAL THICK AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS TO SHRINK ALLOWING
SURFACE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE NAM COULD INDICATE
SOME MORE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. I DONT ANTICIPATE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE REAL THICK AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS TO SHRINK ALLOWING
SURFACE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VIRTUALLY NO GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CALM/DRAINAGE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THE MIST/FOG PATCHES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AND ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THE IFR FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
DURING THE MID MORNING AND MONDAY SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE NAM COULD INDICATE
SOME MORE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. I DONT ANTICIPATE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE REAL THICK AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS TO SHRINK ALLOWING
SURFACE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES GET WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
2 TO 4 MILES AT MOST SITES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-13Z. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE NAM COULD INDICATE
SOME MORE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. I DONT ANTICIPATE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE REAL THICK AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS TO SHRINK ALLOWING
SURFACE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES GET WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
2 TO 4 MILES AT MOST SITES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-13Z. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES GET WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
2 TO 4 MILES AT MOST SITES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-13Z. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES GET WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
2 TO 4 MILES AT MOST SITES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-13Z. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY
AND THEN A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER
JET. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SOME CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING.
THE CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM MODEL WAS INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB TO FORM
A CEILING WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS DOING THAT. AT THIS
TIME THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING AROUND FOR TONIGHT. INSTEAD
OF A WEAK NE FLOW ALOFT THAT WE HAD FOR DAYS IT WILL BECOME NW AND
THIS WILL CHANGE WHERE THE FOG THREAT WILL BE FROM MAINLY NW OH TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FORECASTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
AT CLE AND ERI.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







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