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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER
ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO
LOW 60S IN NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240555
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240331 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. THE CIRRUS MOVING IN IS THINNING SO UPDATED MANY OF THE
TAFS TO INDICATE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES. DID NOT GO WITH
DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR IN
FAVORED SPOTS. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET









000
FXUS61 KCLE 240331 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. THE CIRRUS MOVING IN IS THINNING SO UPDATED MANY OF THE
TAFS TO INDICATE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES. DID NOT GO WITH
DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR IN
FAVORED SPOTS. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET









000
FXUS61 KCLE 240124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME
INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET









000
FXUS61 KCLE 232346
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME
INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 232223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231930
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF OVER FINDLAY TO MARION LINE AS DAYTIME
MIXING SLOWLY ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER SW OHIO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE. OVERALL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING
THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF OVER FINDLAY TO MARION LINE AS DAYTIME
MIXING SLOWLY ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER SW OHIO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE. OVERALL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING
THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231249
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD KICK IN AROUND 10 AM WHICH
WILL QUICKLY ERODE MOST OF THIS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MILD WARM ADVECTION WILL
HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. AN APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE IN INDIANA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR W COUNTIES
LATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPANDING INTO NW OHIO WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE REPORTED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MARION. WEB
CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD VISIBILITIES IN
THE TOLEDO AREA. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FIELD AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPDATE.


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIR MASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPANDING INTO NW OHIO WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE REPORTED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MARION. WEB
CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD VISIBILITIES IN
THE TOLEDO AREA. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FIELD AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPATE.


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221929
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK












000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK












000
FXUS61 KCLE 220742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220108
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 212046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A LAKE TO 850MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL AROUND 15C MORE SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE....SO UPDATED TO PUT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE 850MB WINDS TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








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