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000
FXUS61 KCLE 182300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP VFR GOING UNTIL 16Z SUN WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THRU THEN. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THRU
INDIANA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
TSRA IN THE SOUTH WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
AT FDY AROUND 16 OR 17Z AND PUSHING ALL THE WAY THRU ERI BY 00Z SUN
EVE. CIGS WILL BE RAPIDLY COMING DOWN AS THE RAIN GETS GOING WITH
MOST GUIDANCE PREDICTING LOW MVFR/IFR BY 22Z TO 00Z LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..IFR/MVFR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN PERIODS
OF NON VFR MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP VFR GOING UNTIL 16Z SUN WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THRU THEN. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THRU
INDIANA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
TSRA IN THE SOUTH WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
AT FDY AROUND 16 OR 17Z AND PUSHING ALL THE WAY THRU ERI BY 00Z SUN
EVE. CIGS WILL BE RAPIDLY COMING DOWN AS THE RAIN GETS GOING WITH
MOST GUIDANCE PREDICTING LOW MVFR/IFR BY 22Z TO 00Z LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..IFR/MVFR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN PERIODS
OF NON VFR MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP VFR GOING UNTIL 16Z SUN WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THRU THEN. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THRU
INDIANA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
TSRA IN THE SOUTH WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
AT FDY AROUND 16 OR 17Z AND PUSHING ALL THE WAY THRU ERI BY 00Z SUN
EVE. CIGS WILL BE RAPIDLY COMING DOWN AS THE RAIN GETS GOING WITH
MOST GUIDANCE PREDICTING LOW MVFR/IFR BY 22Z TO 00Z LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..IFR/MVFR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN PERIODS
OF NON VFR MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS THINNING A BIT SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181734
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181734
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181734
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181734
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WE BELIEVE THE CUMULUS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING BEYOND THE CONVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
LIKELY REACHED THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. NEAR THE LAKESHORE HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE
NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURE MAY DIP 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL COOL THE LAKESHORE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL COOL THE LAKESHORE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY
IN NW OHIO AFTER THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO BE OFF THE LAKE. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...FINALLY THICKENING UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE
THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY
IN NW OHIO AFTER THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO BE OFF THE LAKE. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...FINALLY THICKENING UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE
THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY
IN NW OHIO AFTER THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO BE OFF THE LAKE. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...FINALLY THICKENING UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE
THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY
IN NW OHIO AFTER THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO BE OFF THE LAKE. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...FINALLY THICKENING UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE
THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY
IN NW OHIO AFTER THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO BE OFF THE LAKE. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...FINALLY THICKENING UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE
THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180828
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
428 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTED WITH HIGHS
PEAKING A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180828
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
428 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTED WITH HIGHS
PEAKING A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE MOST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 172306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 172306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 172306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 172306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 172238
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 172238
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171719
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171719
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EAST AS LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WEST...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 171643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 171402
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY DENSE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT IT LIFTS BY NOON. WHERE THE SUN IS ALREADY OUT TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 171402
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY DENSE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT IT LIFTS BY NOON. WHERE THE SUN IS ALREADY OUT TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 171402
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY DENSE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT IT LIFTS BY NOON. WHERE THE SUN IS ALREADY OUT TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170427
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170427
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170427
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS AND CHANGED WORDING TO "LIGHT
RAIN". NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS AND CHANGED WORDING TO "LIGHT
RAIN". NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS AND CHANGED WORDING TO "LIGHT
RAIN". NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS AND CHANGED WORDING TO "LIGHT
RAIN". NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 162306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 162306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVER NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
MFVR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...AS IT DOES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 162206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 162206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 162206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL
HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF
I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY)
FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST
THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE
WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE (LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF
I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161644
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161644
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161644
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161644
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN
UP THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...WE ARE GETTING SOME RAIN
TO THE GROUND ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ALL OF THE SHOWERS MAY STAY
FROM AROUND THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. WILL JUST HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO WITH "LIKELY" FROM AROUND I-71
EASTWARD. ERIE PA MAY STAY ON THE EDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL
GET CLOUDY AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTY. DID NOT
CHANGE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MUCH EXCEPT BUMPED ERIE PA UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MID 60S. AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN
UP THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...WE ARE GETTING SOME RAIN
TO THE GROUND ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ALL OF THE SHOWERS MAY STAY
FROM AROUND THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. WILL JUST HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO WITH "LIKELY" FROM AROUND I-71
EASTWARD. ERIE PA MAY STAY ON THE EDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL
GET CLOUDY AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTY. DID NOT
CHANGE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MUCH EXCEPT BUMPED ERIE PA UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MID 60S. AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN
UP THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...WE ARE GETTING SOME RAIN
TO THE GROUND ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ALL OF THE SHOWERS MAY STAY
FROM AROUND THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. WILL JUST HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO WITH "LIKELY" FROM AROUND I-71
EASTWARD. ERIE PA MAY STAY ON THE EDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL
GET CLOUDY AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTY. DID NOT
CHANGE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MUCH EXCEPT BUMPED ERIE PA UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MID 60S. AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN
UP THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...WE ARE GETTING SOME RAIN
TO THE GROUND ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ALL OF THE SHOWERS MAY STAY
FROM AROUND THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. WILL JUST HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO WITH "LIKELY" FROM AROUND I-71
EASTWARD. ERIE PA MAY STAY ON THE EDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL
GET CLOUDY AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTY. DID NOT
CHANGE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MUCH EXCEPT BUMPED ERIE PA UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MID 60S. AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. THE SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER FINE TUNING AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER
BUT HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 161156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. THE SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER FINE TUNING AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER
BUT HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LEADING
RADAR ECHOS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS ARRIVE...INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AROUND 16 AND CLE AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS GIVEN LOW CHANCES BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE
OF IFR IS TONIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. THE SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER FINE TUNING AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER
BUT HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 161032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. THE SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER FINE TUNING AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER
BUT HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER BUT
HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER BUT
HAVE MADE LITTLE PROGRESS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. STILL
THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO NW PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF NO
MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO. NO CAPE TODAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SO THUNDER WILL BE A NON ISSUE. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN THE EAST AS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160610
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160610
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160610
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160610
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TRIED TO TIME THE
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO START DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z BUT ONLY INCLUDED IN A FEW SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH TIME.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THICKENING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND AT FIRST BECAUSE THE AIR IS DRY AND THEN AS THE TROF MOVES
NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL/SCATTERED BUT THEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THICKENING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND AT FIRST BECAUSE THE AIR IS DRY AND THEN AS THE TROF MOVES
NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL/SCATTERED BUT THEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 160130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THICKENING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND AT FIRST BECAUSE THE AIR IS DRY AND THEN AS THE TROF MOVES
NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL/SCATTERED BUT THEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 160130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. PRECIP STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND WITH DEW POINT STILL IN THE 20S WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
SATURATE. THAT SAID LOW CHANCE POPS EXTREME WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK
SOUNDS REASONABLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TWEAKED TIMING OF THICKER CLOUDS SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
INITIAL SURGE OF QPF MOVING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA...GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
ARE LOW SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER TONIGHT OR PERHAPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN
THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID/UPPER 30S INLAND NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
TROUGH THAN A LOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AT FIRST AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DECREASE SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW EAST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY ERODE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF...LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME
POINT...PERHAPS NOT GETTING TO ERIE PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME
MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY DURING THE
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 60S
FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR GETTING WET FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING...WHETHER THE POPS SHOULD BE CHANCE OR
LIKELY. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
AND JUST KEPT IT CHANCE...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
HIGH/RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...THIS MEANS A DRY
SATURDAY.

A LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A THREAT SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

ON TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE IS AROUND AND ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AROUND. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. A FRONT
COULD BE AROUND THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
ANY THREAT IS LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THICKENING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND AT FIRST BECAUSE THE AIR IS DRY AND THEN AS THE TROF MOVES
NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL/SCATTERED BUT THEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NE FLOW TO COME AROUND TO THE SE FOR THURSDAY. THE WAVES COULD BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE
WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD HANDLE IT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING TEMPORARILY
BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN







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