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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING DESPITE RATHER MODEST CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND WITH LAKE ERIE NOW WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND,
IT BECOMES A SOURCE OF SUSTAINED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES FROM CALE TO ERIE.
THE DEEP WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS
THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO WI SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE INCREASED SHEAR MAY HELP ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN.

WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE SNOWBELT. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT YNG THROUGH 07Z THEN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE PRIOR TO 12Z...AND INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR -SHRA FROM 09-13Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT ERI DURING THIS TIME BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. AS MID CLOUDS DEPART TO THE EAST...AN AREA OF
STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OHIO...ALREADY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAK BUT WILL LIKELY FILL IN AT YNG TOO. IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR LIKELY
AT CAK/YNG THROUGH 13Z AND MAY EXPAND WESTWARD TO MFD. SCT-BKN VFR
CU FIELD WILL FILL IN 18-20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 310201
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING DESPITE RATHER MODEST CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND WITH LAKE ERIE NOW WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND,
IT BECOMES A SOURCE OF SUSTAINED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES FROM CALE TO ERIE.
THE DEEP WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS
THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO WI SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE INCREASED SHEAR MAY HELP ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN.

WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE SNOWBELT. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310201
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING DESPITE RATHER MODEST CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND WITH LAKE ERIE NOW WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND,
IT BECOMES A SOURCE OF SUSTAINED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES FROM CALE TO ERIE.
THE DEEP WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS
THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO WI SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE INCREASED SHEAR MAY HELP ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN.

WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE SNOWBELT. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 302302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN CLE AND CAK. STORM CELL CORES HAVE EXCEEDED 65
DBZ ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWEST ELEVATION SCAN MEASURED
RADIAL VELOCITY NEAR 47 KT FROM THE TLVE TDWR IN MEDINA COUNTY.
WITH ONLY MODEST MLCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE SOON AND LEAVE A CLEARING SKY FOR A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR CAK TO YNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 302302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN CLE AND CAK. STORM CELL CORES HAVE EXCEEDED 65
DBZ ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWEST ELEVATION SCAN MEASURED
RADIAL VELOCITY NEAR 47 KT FROM THE TLVE TDWR IN MEDINA COUNTY.
WITH ONLY MODEST MLCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE SOON AND LEAVE A CLEARING SKY FOR A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR CAK TO YNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KCLE 302252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN CLE AND CAK. STORM CELL CORES HAVE EXCEEDED 65
DBZ ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWEST ELEVATION SCAN MEASURED
RADIAL VELOCITY NEAR 47 KT FROM THE TLVE TDWR IN MEDINA COUNTY.
WITH ONLY MODEST MLCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE SOON AND LEAVE A CLEARING SKY FOR A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR CAK TO YNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN CLE AND CAK. STORM CELL CORES HAVE EXCEEDED 65
DBZ ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWEST ELEVATION SCAN MEASURED
RADIAL VELOCITY NEAR 47 KT FROM THE TLVE TDWR IN MEDINA COUNTY.
WITH ONLY MODEST MLCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE SOON AND LEAVE A CLEARING SKY FOR A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR CAK TO YNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301747
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING HAS
INITIATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FDY AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NWPA AND NEOH...WITH CONDITIONS
STILL FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
HAS STAYED OFFSHORE...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE WATER. A WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...SO THE LOGIC REMAINS THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

BY MID-AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS..IN CONCERT WITH THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K FEET AGL...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
HAVE NICKEL HAIL OR LARGER. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301358
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING HAS
INITIATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FDY AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NWPA AND NEOH...WITH CONDITIONS
STILL FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
HAS STAYED OFFSHORE...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE WATER. A WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...SO THE LOGIC REMAINS THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

BY MID-AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS..IN CONCERT WITH THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K FEET AGL...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
HAVE NICKEL HAIL OR LARGER. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301358
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING HAS
INITIATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FDY AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NWPA AND NEOH...WITH CONDITIONS
STILL FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
HAS STAYED OFFSHORE...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE WATER. A WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...SO THE LOGIC REMAINS THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

BY MID-AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS..IN CONCERT WITH THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K FEET AGL...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
HAVE NICKEL HAIL OR LARGER. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID END UP FILLING IN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER LAKE ERIE AND CONCERNS FOR WATERSPOUTS CONTINUE.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING INLAND FROM THIS BAND. EXPECTING THE BAND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SHORELINE BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST. REFINED POPS A TOUCH BASED ON THIS
IDEA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE SHORT LIVED...KEEPING
MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID END UP FILLING IN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER LAKE ERIE AND CONCERNS FOR WATERSPOUTS CONTINUE.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING INLAND FROM THIS BAND. EXPECTING THE BAND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SHORELINE BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST. REFINED POPS A TOUCH BASED ON THIS
IDEA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE SHORT LIVED...KEEPING
MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 301126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
726 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID END UP FILLING IN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER LAKE ERIE AND CONCERNS FOR WATERSPOUTS CONTINUE.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING INLAND FROM THIS BAND. EXPECTING THE BAND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SHORELINE BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST. REFINED POPS A TOUCH BASED ON THIS
IDEA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE SHORT LIVED...KEEPING
MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 300829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
429 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OFFSHORE OF ERI OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NE ERIE PA. CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ON THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILL IN TO THE WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OUT OVER THE
LAKE...SHOWERS COULD SPREAD EAST SE TOWARDS NE OHIO.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE
HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING EAST. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25
KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE
SHORT LIVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER LAKE ERIE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID
50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH. CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. EXPECTING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
429 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OFFSHORE OF ERI OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NE ERIE PA. CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ON THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILL IN TO THE WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OUT OVER THE
LAKE...SHOWERS COULD SPREAD EAST SE TOWARDS NE OHIO.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE
HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING EAST. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25
KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE
SHORT LIVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER LAKE ERIE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID
50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH. CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. EXPECTING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300531
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.

TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 300141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.

TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 292354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.

TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.

TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291929
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
MOVING OUT OF LOWER MI INTO NWRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG BUT
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO NWRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL
AS OVER THE LAKE...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND EAST LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 290124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282222
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281859
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281859
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC











000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281316
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS INLAND NERN OHIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281316
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS INLAND NERN OHIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280831
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280831
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







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