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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A
MORE EASTERLY WIND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SOME THINNING SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE FROM
SW TO NE THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S
NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NW OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 241143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AND YOUNGSTOWN SO
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STARTING THE DAY OFF TO OUR WEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING AROUND THE RIDGE WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS INDIANA ALSO
INDICATE A CLOUD DECK IN 8-10K RANGE WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REACHING THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OHIO
THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NW OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 241055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AND YOUNGSTOWN SO
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STARTING THE DAY OFF TO OUR WEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING AROUND THE RIDGE WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS INDIANA ALSO
INDICATE A CLOUD DECK IN 8-10K RANGE WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REACHING THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OHIO
THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240824
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A
MORE EASTERLY WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING THE DAY
OFF TO OUR WEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
AROUND THE RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS INDIANA ALSO INDICATE A CLOUD DECK IN 8-10K RANGE WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR NEARLY ALL
AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AND THEN E TO SE ON THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KERI AND KCLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 232316
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AND THEN E TO SE ON THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KERI AND KCLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 232217
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES IN NWRN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...BUT CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231933
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN AT THIS
TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST.
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES IN NWRN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...BUT CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS FOR THE MOST PART ENDED AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE AS EXPECTED
OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO PUSH IN.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH THE SUN BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM FROM RISING TOO DRASTICALLY. CUT BACK A FEW
DEGREES ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES IN NWRN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...BUT CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231633
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS FOR THE MOST PART ENDED AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE AS EXPECTED
OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO PUSH IN.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH THE SUN BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM FROM RISING TOO DRASTICALLY. CUT BACK A FEW
DEGREES ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...SLIGHTLY LONGER
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
NEW NAM MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES TO TAKE PLACE.
I EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS TO SEE CLEAR SKIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB LITTLE. ANY
HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SUNSHINE. SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...SLIGHTLY LONGER
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHRASN THIS MORNING THEN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE COOL AIR IN PLACE AIDED BY FLOW OFF OF A
CHILLY LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM ABOUT 57 AT FDY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...SLIGHTLY LONGER
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHRASN THIS MORNING THEN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE COOL AIR IN PLACE AIDED BY FLOW OFF OF A
CHILLY LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM ABOUT 57 AT FDY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO BUT
STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA.

AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS BY 11Z WE EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MEANWHILE NW OHIO WILL BE
VFR THE ENTIRE TIME.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHRASN THIS MORNING THEN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE COOL AIR IN PLACE AIDED BY FLOW OFF OF A
CHILLY LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM ABOUT 57 AT FDY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO BUT
STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA.

AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS BY 11Z WE EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MEANWHILE NW OHIO WILL BE
VFR THE ENTIRE TIME.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN












000
FXUS61 KCLE 230537
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AS SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO BUT
STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA.

AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS BY 11Z WE EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MEANWHILE NW OHIO WILL BE
VFR THE ENTIRE TIME.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AS SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. FROM
ABOUT KCLE EAST EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS NEAR YYZ. THESE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP KCLE AND KCAK DRY BUT KERI AND KYNG
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN. DRY AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND SKIES OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY 06Z. IT WILL TAKE TILL LATER WEDNESDAY AM FOR THE CIGS TO
DIS SPATE IN THE EAST. WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE FLOW AT KCLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 320.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. FROM
ABOUT KCLE EAST EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS NEAR YYZ. THESE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP KCLE AND KCAK DRY BUT KERI AND KYNG
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN. DRY AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND SKIES OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY 06Z. IT WILL TAKE TILL LATER WEDNESDAY AM FOR THE CIGS TO
DIS SPATE IN THE EAST. WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE FLOW AT KCLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 320.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222213
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
613 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.

COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE AT THIS
TIME AS WELL DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. FURTHER SOUTH
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

CLEARING IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH THE SUN WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221612
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1212 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.

COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE AT THIS
TIME AS WELL DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. FURTHER SOUTH
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

CLEARING IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH THE SUN WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR
VERY SMALL SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT I EXPECT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AS FLOW MOVES IN OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS GETTING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT 6 AM. THE
SHOWERS WERE OUT RUNNING THE FRONT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH "SHOWERS LIKELY"
NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS GETTING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT 6 AM. THE
SHOWERS WERE OUT RUNNING THE FRONT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH "SHOWERS LIKELY"
NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT... WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN FIGHTING
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING ALOFT.

IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE EAST WITH THE SHOWERS
EXITING SOON AFTER. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT... WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
STILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE WESTERN AREAS DRYING OUT
BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY TONIGHT
...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY












000
FXUS61 KCLE 220143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
STILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE WESTERN AREAS DRYING OUT
BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO EXPECTING IT TO TAKE A WHILE FOR
RAIN TO BEGIN. FDY IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03-12Z. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...RANGING FROM
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW. DRY AIR... SUBSIDENCE AND
AN INCREASE IN MIXING WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE CLEARING IS
QUESTIONABLE BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH WIND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN NW OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER. STILL A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP UP A FEW HOURS. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO EXPECTING IT TO TAKE A WHILE FOR
RAIN TO BEGIN. FDY IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03-12Z. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...RANGING FROM
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW. DRY AIR... SUBSIDENCE AND
AN INCREASE IN MIXING WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE CLEARING IS
QUESTIONABLE BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH WIND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN NW OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212246
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER. STILL A
LOT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP UP
A FEW HOURS. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 22/02Z. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE FEWER HIGH CLOUDS.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB








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