000
FXUS61 KCLE 242318
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THIS
EVENING FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. CALLED IT "CLEARING" FOR THE
NE OH/NW PA COUNTIES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND IMPACT AND HAVE GONE WITH FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING
WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO LESSEN. IF
SPEEDS STAY MORE THAN 5 OR 6 MPH OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO ACHIEVE. IF FREEZING TEMPS DO OCCUR IT WILL BE ONE OF THE
LATEST FREEZES EVER AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME
INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE SO HAVE TAKEN THE FROST HEADLINE ALL THE WAY TO KTOL AND
KFDY. LATEST HRRR HAS SURFACE TEMPS TO 34 DEGREES BY 04Z OVER MOST
OF INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. IF THAT OCCURS FROST IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FROST HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAY GET TO 70 ON
MONDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PUT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THINK DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE EAST TILL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN A LOOK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE TODAY SKIES SHOULD BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. IN THE WARM AIR MASS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THE 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST AT THIS TIME WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
HALF AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EAST HALF. CLOUDS ARE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS MAY
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 KNOTS FROM CLEVELAND TO
MANSFIELD WEST AND TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE EAST OF THAT LINE
DURING THE DAY. MAINLY CIRRUS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END OF THE
LAKE AS THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE WAVES COULD BE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE IN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-036-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ144-145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 242229
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THIS
EVENING FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. CALLED IT "CLEARING" FOR THE
NE OH/NW PA COUNTIES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND IMPACT AND HAVE GONE WITH FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING
WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO LESSEN. IF
SPEEDS STAY MORE THAN 5 OR 6 MPH OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO ACHIEVE. IF FREEZING TEMPS DO OCCUR IT WILL BE ONE OF THE
LATEST FREEZES EVER AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME
INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE SO HAVE TAKEN THE FROST HEADLINE ALL THE WAY TO KTOL AND
KFDY. LATEST HRRR HAS SURFACE TEMPS TO 34 DEGREES BY 04Z OVER MOST
OF INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. IF THAT OCCURS FROST IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FROST HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAY GET TO 70 ON
MONDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PUT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THINK DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE EAST TILL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN A LOOK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE TODAY SKIES SHOULD BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. IN THE WARM AIR MASS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THE 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND THE CEILINGS ARE RISING AND WILL BE VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DARK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG
AT THE TAF SITES BUT SOME MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
VFR SATURDAY WITH SOME CIRRUS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END OF THE
LAKE AS THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE WAVES COULD BE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE IN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-036-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ144-145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241921
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND IMPACT AND HAVE GONE WITH FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING
WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO LESSEN. IF
SPEEDS STAY MORE THAN 5 OR 6 MPH OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO ACHIEVE. IF FREEZING TEMPS DO OCCUR IT WILL BE ONE OF THE
LATEST FREEZES EVER AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME
INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE SO HAVE TAKEN THE FROST HEADLINE ALL THE WAY TO KTOL AND
KFDY. LATEST HRRR HAS SURFACE TEMPS TO 34 DEGREES BY 04Z OVER MOST
OF INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. IF THAT OCCURS FROST IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FROST HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAY GET TO 70 ON
MONDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PUT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THINK DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE EAST TILL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN A LOOK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE TODAY SKIES SHOULD BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. IN THE WARM AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THE 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND THE CEILINGS ARE RISING AND WILL BE VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DARK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG
AT THE TAF SITES BUT SOME MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
VFR SATURDAY WITH SOME CIRRUS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END OF THE
LAKE AS THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE WAVES COULD BE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE IN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-036-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241752
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND HAVE ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT TEMPS IN THE EAST MAY STILL
BE A TAD HIGH. LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST 1/3 TO
1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
ORIGINAL...SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FILLED IN PARTIALLY.
OVERALL CLEARING WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN DAY. STRATUS
POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE. MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS ENDED
FOR FOR OHIO...AND LIKELY NW PA. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE
KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT
ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT
REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK
WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.
EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND THE CEILINGS ARE RISING AND WILL BE VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DARK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG
AT THE TAF SITES BUT SOME MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
VFR SATURDAY WITH SOME CIRRUS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241326
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND HAVE ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT TEMPS IN THE EAST MAY STILL
BE A TAD HIGH. LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST 1/3 TO
1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
ORIGINAL...SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FILLED IN PARTIALLY.
OVERALL CLEARING WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN DAY. STRATUS
POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE. MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS ENDED
FOR FOR OHIO...AND LIKELY NW PA. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE
KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT
ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT
REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK
WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.
EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN...HOWEVER...A LAYER OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS DESCENDING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THAT THIS MVFR
DECK WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE KTOL AND KFDY WILL BE
LARGELY UNAFFECTED. KMFD IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE AND WILL MIX
DRIER AIR IN QUICKLY. WILL HAVE DECK LAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND
THEN SHOULD GO SCATTERED 14-16Z. KCLE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
16Z. KCAK KYNG AND KERI HELD ONTO THE DECK DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BUT REALLY DONT THINK
CLEARING WILL BE QUICK. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD BE CLEAR SKIES BUT WILD CARD OF COURSE WILL BE
POTENTIAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
AREA CLEAR/VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241127
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FILLED IN PARTIALLY.
OVERALL CLEARING WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN DAY. STRATUS
POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE. MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS
ENDED FOR FOR OHIO...AND LIKELY NW PA. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE
KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT
ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT
REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK
WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.
EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN...HOWEVER...A LAYER OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS DESCENDING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THAT THIS MVFR
DECK WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE KTOL AND KFDY WILL BE
LARGELY UNAFFECTED. KMFD IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE AND WILL MIX
DRIER AIR IN QUICKLY. WILL HAVE DECK LAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND
THEN SHOULD GO SCATTERED 14-16Z. KCLE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
16Z. KCAK KYNG AND KERI HELD ONTO THE DECK DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BUT REALLY DONT THINK
CLEARING WILL BE QUICK. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD BE CLEAR SKIES BUT WILD CARD OF COURSE WILL BE
POTENTIAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
AREA CLEAR/VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241023
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FILLED IN PARTIALLY.
OVERALL CLEARING WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN DAY. STRATUS
POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE. MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS
ENDED FOR FOR OHIO...AND LIKELY NW PA. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE
KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT
ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT
REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK
WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.
EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH MVFR
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. SATELLITE SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NNW WITH CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS SERN LWR MI. TIMED THIS
CLEARING INTO KTOL AREA BY 06Z AND KFDY BY 07Z. CLEARING WILL THEN
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING KCLE AROUND 10Z AND KERI BY
15Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNW REACHING CLOSE
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN DAY. STRATUS POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS
AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE.
PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR CLE WESTWARD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED
YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS
AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO
THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS
WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.
EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH MVFR
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. SATELLITE SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NNW WITH CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS SERN LWR MI. TIMED THIS
CLEARING INTO KTOL AREA BY 06Z AND KFDY BY 07Z. CLEARING WILL THEN
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING KCLE AROUND 10Z AND KERI BY
15Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNW REACHING CLOSE
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240423
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1223 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE TOLEDO AREA BY 3 AM. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY SLOW SOME DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...ESPECIALLY FROM
AROUND VERMILION AND MANSFIELD EAST WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
NEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. THE 850 MB TEMP AT DTX WAS
ALREADY DOWN TO +2C AT 00Z AND PROGGED TO DROP TO -2C. THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD SQUEEZE THE
INVERSION ALTHOUGH WE COULD HANG ON TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
WHILE ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE
IT BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH MVFR
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. SATELLITE SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NNW WITH CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS SERN LWR MI. TIMED THIS
CLEARING INTO KTOL AREA BY 06Z AND KFDY BY 07Z. CLEARING WILL THEN
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING KCLE AROUND 10Z AND KERI BY
15Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNW REACHING CLOSE
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240252
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE TOLEDO AREA BY 3 AM. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY SLOW SOME DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...ESPECIALLY FROM
AROUND VERMILION AND MANSFIELD EAST WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
NEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. THE 850 MB TEMP AT DTX WAS
ALREADY DOWN TO +2C AT 00Z AND PROGGED TO DROP TO -2C. THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD SQUEEZE THE
INVERSION ALTHOUGH WE COULD HANG ON TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
WHILE ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE
IT BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND ERI WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
BUT NW OHIO WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPANDING FROM CLE EASTWARD WITH
A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING AND EVEN CLEARING OUT OF TOL/FDY BY AROUND 06Z AND MFD
CLOSER TO 10Z. WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS AT YNG/ERI THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE...BEFORE SKIES FINALLY
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY IN NE OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240134
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS JUST EAST OF TOLEDO (AT 930 PM). SOME
DRIZZLE COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE FROM VERMILION
AND MANSFIELD EAST WHERE THERE MAY BE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE 850 MB TEMP AT DTX WAS ALREADY DOWN TO +2C AT 00Z AND PROGGED
TO DROP TO -2C. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD SQUEEZE THE INVERSION ALTHOUGH WE COULD
HANG ON TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SNOWBELT.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE
IT BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND ERI WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
BUT NW OHIO WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPANDING FROM CLE EASTWARD WITH
A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING AND EVEN CLEARING OUT OF TOL/FDY BY AROUND 06Z AND MFD
CLOSER TO 10Z. WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS AT YNG/ERI THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE...BEFORE SKIES FINALLY
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY IN NE OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 232353
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS
NOTICEABLE OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL SOON DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TEMPS/DEWPOINT DROP IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. I
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT GIVEN THE NORTH WIND OFF THE LAKE AND OUR CLIMATOLOGY
I AM NERVOUS ABOUT CLEARING TOO FAST. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY
IN CASE ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE IT
BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND ERI WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
BUT NW OHIO WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPANDING FROM CLE EASTWARD WITH
A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING AND EVEN CLEARING OUT OF TOL/FDY BY AROUND 06Z AND MFD
CLOSER TO 10Z. WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS AT YNG/ERI THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE...BEFORE SKIES FINALLY
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY IN NE OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 232223
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS
NOTICEABLE OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL SOON DROP INTO THE 50S AND 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TEMPS/DEWPOINT DROP IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. I
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT GIVEN THE NORTH WIND OFF THE LAKE AND OUR CLIMATOLOGY
I AM NERVOUS ABOUT CLEARING TOO FAST. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY
IN CASE ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE IT
BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE SHOWERS BACK OVER MICHIGAN
WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS DUE TO THE
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. SOME REPORTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.
CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 700 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN RECOVER
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS PRETTY MUCH
SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME EAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A TAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICK UP AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231925
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY. QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR. HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY THUNDER YET BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR ABOUT SOME
GRAUPEL LATER THIS EVENING AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND IN
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP. WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER. CLOUDS EXTEND WEST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
IN THE FAR WEST WHICH MAY CLEAR RIGHT AT DAYBREAK. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE NUDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE SHOWERS BACK OVER MICHIGAN
WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS DUE TO THE
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. SOME REPORTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.
CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 700 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN RECOVER
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS PRETTY MUCH
SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME EAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A TAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICK UP AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. STILL EXPECT SHRA ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
NEARING THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL
GET ARE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
MORE SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE
SKY COVER WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY. NO CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.
PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE SHOWERS BACK OVER MICHIGAN
WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS DUE TO THE
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. SOME REPORTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.
CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 700 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN RECOVER
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS PRETTY MUCH
SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME EAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A TAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICK UP AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231409
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1009 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. STILL EXPECT SHRA ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
NEARING THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL
GET ARE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
MORE SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE
SKY COVER WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY. NO CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.
PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING
AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED EARLY MORNING FOG. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 16Z-18Z OR SO AT KTOL AND KFDY FIRST
BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH RAIN...MIST/FOG AND
LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
NEARING THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL
GET ARE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
MORE SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE
SKY COVER WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY. NO CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.
PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING
AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED EARLY MORNING FOG. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 16Z-18Z OR SO AT KTOL AND KFDY FIRST
BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH RAIN...MIST/FOG AND
LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231036
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
NEARING THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL
GET ARE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
MORE SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE
SKY COVER WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY. NO CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.
PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO
IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY FIRST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH
RAIN...MIST/FOG AND LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 230813
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 3 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS FURTHER
UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR
THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS
COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL GET ARE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MORE SO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.
PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO
IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY FIRST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH
RAIN...MIST/FOG AND LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 230519
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOTS
OF UPWARD MOTION AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO DRY AND A
LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...ANY
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN HAVE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LINGERING
SHOWER ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER
60S...LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIR MASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO
IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY FIRST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH
RAIN...MIST/FOG AND LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 230303
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOTS
OF UPWARD MOTION AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO DRY AND A
LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...ANY
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN HAVE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LINGERING
SHOWER ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER
60S...LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIR MASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS BUT THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
03Z. TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED IF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES A TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 10-14Z. THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16-21Z AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH IFR AT SOME SITES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 230041
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
841 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. JUST NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET THE ACTIVITY GOING AND DRYING IN THE COLUMN IS
INCREASING. I CAN SEE OUT THE WINDOW THE ONGOING ENTRAINMENT IN
THE CUMULUS. THAT BEING SAID... THERE IS PLENTY OF WIND ALOFT...30-35
KNOTS AT 3K AND 50 KNOTS AT 20K...THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SHORT LIVED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ANY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN OHIO.
WILL TAPER PRECIP CHANCES DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALSO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. IT WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT TO GET THE WEAKENING
TROUGH PAST THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIR MASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS BUT THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
03Z. TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED IF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES A TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 10-14Z. THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16-21Z AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH IFR AT SOME SITES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 222356
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY EVENING. AN
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WATCH BOX IS ALREADY OUT FOR THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE EARLIER HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. SOME
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN ACTIVITY
COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER. DECENT SPEED SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP TODAY. AM
NOT SURE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE FOR HAIL TODAY SO WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE WEST. MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA UNDER AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS. TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MUCH LESS IN THAT AREA AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF I-71. WILL TAPER PRECIP CHANCES DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALSO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIRMASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIRMASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS BUT THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
03Z. TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED IF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES A TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 10-14Z. THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16-21Z AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH IFR AT SOME SITES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221917
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
317 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY EVENING. AN
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WATCH BOX IS ALREADY OUT FOR THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE EARLIER HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. SOME
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN ACTIVITY
COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER. DECENT SPEED SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP TODAY. AM
NOT SURE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE FOR HAIL TODAY SO WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE WEST. MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA UNDER AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS. TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MUCH LESS IN THAT AREA AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF I-71. WILL TAPER PRECIP CHANCES DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALSO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIRMASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIRMASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING ATMOSPHERE RATHER QUIET
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE EAST HALF HAS
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW IN THE
TAFS AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...SINCE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENED BY THE CLOUDS
WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BUT NOT BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221751
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPC HAS BEEFED UP THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY. SATELLITE
PROBLEMS CONTINUE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOWARD SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING
OUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY
START TO WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT. ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS. TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING ATMOSPHERE RATHER QUIET
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE EAST HALF HAS
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW IN THE
TAFS AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...SINCE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENED BY THE CLOUDS
WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BUT NOT BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221353
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPC HAS BEEFED UP THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY. SATELLITE
PROBLEMS CONTINUE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOWARD SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING
OUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY
START TO WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT. ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS. TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO AT 12Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL LAKES
BY EVENING AND QUEBEC BY 12Z THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z
AND REACH THE KCLE VICINITY BY 12Z. SHOWERS MOVING INTO/THRU NWRN
OHIO THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 16-18Z TIME FRAME. DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MORE GENERAL WILL PLACEMENT. OVERNIGHT THE SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221111
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
711 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOWARD SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING
OUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY
START TO WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT. ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS. TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO AT 12Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL LAKES
BY EVENING AND QUEBEC BY 12Z THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z
AND REACH THE KCLE VICINITY BY 12Z. SHOWERS MOVING INTO/THRU NWRN
OHIO THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 16-18Z TIME FRAME. DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MORE GENERAL WILL PLACEMENT. OVERNIGHT THE SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221006 AAA
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOWARD SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING
OUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY
START TO WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT. ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS. TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 06Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL
LAKES BY EVENING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 14Z-16Z WEST AND 16-18Z ELSEWHERE.
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW
WILL BE MORE GENERAL WILL FORECAST CONVECTION 12 HOURS OUT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
HAZE/FOG CAK AND YNG.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 220733
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARD
SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE REAR
QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING OUT THE
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY START TO
WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT.
ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT TO KICK
OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS. TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 06Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL
LAKES BY EVENING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 14Z-16Z WEST AND 16-18Z ELSEWHERE.
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW
WILL BE MORE GENERAL WILL FORECAST CONVECTION 12 HOURS OUT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
HAZE/FOG CAK AND YNG.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 220537
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR IN
ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORELINE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR TONIGHT AND
HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DISRUPT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ADD ERROR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS INDIANA BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. CLOUD DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HAVE A
CHANCE POP RETURNING OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WEST. THE CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NW OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT BUT HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TSRA WILL PEAK WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SSE ACROSS THE CWA THU. WITH DYNAMICAL HELP
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCT TO LIKELY SHRA AND SOME TSRA ON THU WITH
MOST OF THE THREAT SHIFTING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS BY FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS FRI MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE MID
60S SW. A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RUN FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
QUIET AND DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. WILL TRY FOR FOUR DRY DAYS IN A
ROW. TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 06Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL
LAKES BY EVENING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 14Z-16Z WEST AND 16-18Z ELSEWHERE.
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW
WILL BE MORE GENERAL WILL FORECAST CONVECTION 12 HOURS OUT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
HAZE/FOG CAK AND YNG.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE
ERIE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULTING WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
000
FXUS61 KCLE 220248
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR IN
ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORELINE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR TONIGHT AND
HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DISRUPT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ADD ERROR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS INDIANA BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. CLOUD DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HAVE A
CHANCE POP RETURNING OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WEST. THE CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NW OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT BUT HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TSRA WILL PEAK WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SSE ACROSS THE CWA THU. WITH DYNAMICAL HELP
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCT TO LIKELY SHRA AND SOME TSRA ON THU WITH
MOST OF THE THREAT SHIFTING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS BY FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS FRI MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE MID
60S SW. A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RUN FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
QUIET AND DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. WILL TRY FOR FOUR DRY DAYS IN A
ROW. TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING
OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY MVFR
FOG/HAZE/MIST LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY ARRIVING RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
DAY... MID MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NW OHIO AND LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE VFR. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AGAIN AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE
ERIE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULTING WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
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