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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTSIDE
BUT IT COULD STILL COULD HOLD THE LOWS UP SOME ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AND WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT MONDAY DRY...SOME SHOWERS
COULD GET CLOSE TO TOLEDO VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
OVER WESTERN OHIO MONDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK AND ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER
TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THAT COULD GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 10C. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOW
BELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER ASHTABULA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH...AT THIS TIME NOT MEETING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT THURSDAY DRY. INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSING IN ON
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. BUT THE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT OUT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR THURSDAY/S RAIN. BY THE TIME IT LIFTS OUT THE
TROUGH THE ECMWF IS ALREADY BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. BECAUSE THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHED ANY MORE CERTAINTY...I WILL KEEP POPS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES EITHER...BUT BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE NEXT BEST BET TO
CRACK 70 DEG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...ULTIMATELY LIMITING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MILDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURES OVER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY FRIDAY THE
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE IS DEVELOPING. IT MAY MAKE IT 5 MILES INLAND
BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL AFTERNOON. NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE A MILD
AFTERNOON EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. SOME CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...IT COULD BE A LITTLE
THICKER OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS...MAINLY
UP A LITTLE AND ADDED WORDING ABOUT COOLER BECAUSE OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201630
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE IS DEVELOPING. IT MAY MAKE IT 5 MILES INLAND
BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL AFTERNOON. NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE A MILD
AFTERNOON EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. SOME CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...IT COULD BE A LITTLE
THICKER OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS...MAINLY
UP A LITTLE AND ADDED WORDING ABOUT COOLER BECAUSE OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY
TONIGHT. VFR WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 201340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
WITH A SOUTH FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL MAKE IT 4 TO 6 MILES INLAND. IT WILL TAKE TIME
TO GET INLAND...IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE
TEMPS WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY
TONIGHT. VFR WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A TAD FOR 630 UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS OVER THE AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE
TEMPS WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY
TONIGHT. VFR WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 201003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A TAD FOR 630 UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS OVER THE AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE
TEMPS WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL NOT BE AS FAST BRINGING
RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 200750
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE TEMPS
WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL NOT BE AS FAST BRINGING
RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 200145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THE CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER
WITH THE DRIER LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO RADIATE A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT
AND IN THE WEST LATE. IT SHOULD BE THIN. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE
LOWS TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER ON
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
SOME CIRRUS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...NO JET DYNAMICS TO HELP
ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...COULD BE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. WE WILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE...DEFINITELY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

SOME CIRRUS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE...SO JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD APPROACH
10C. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING AT FIRST AND THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS RUN OF THE MODELS
ARE COLDER AND ARE INDICATING THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING THIS...WILL
NOT MENTION A MIX...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER THREAT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT WILL
LIKELY MODIFY AS TIME GOES ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO GIVE A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MONDAY WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CLEVELAND WEST INTO THE ISLANDS. SO
WILL HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD
DIMINISH BEFORE THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA HEDGE
ROOM IN CASE THE WINDS HOLD UP. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO
STRONG ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 200014
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
814 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS
WILL BE AROUND IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IN THE WEST LATE. IT
SHOULD BE THIN. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE LOWS TONIGHT...THE WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER ON TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
SOME CIRRUS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...NO JET DYNAMICS TO HELP
ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...COULD BE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. WE WILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE...DEFINITELY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

SOME CIRRUS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE...SO JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD APPROACH
10C. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING AT FIRST AND THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS RUN OF THE MODELS
ARE COLDER AND ARE INDICATING THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING THIS...WILL
NOT MENTION A MIX...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER THREAT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT WILL
LIKELY MODIFY AS TIME GOES ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO GIVE A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MONDAY WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CLEVELAND WEST INTO THE ISLANDS. SO
WILL HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD
DIMINISH BEFORE THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA HEDGE
ROOM IN CASE THE WINDS HOLD UP. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO
STRONG ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 192250
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS
WILL BE AROUND IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IN THE WEST LATE. IT
SHOULD BE THIN. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE LOWS TONIGHT...THE WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER ON TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
SOME CIRRUS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...NO JET DYNAMICS TO HELP
ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...COULD BE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. WE WILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE...DEFINITELY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

SOME CIRRUS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE...SO JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD APPROACH
10C. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING AT FIRST AND THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS RUN OF THE MODELS
ARE COLDER AND ARE INDICATING THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING THIS...WILL
NOT MENTION A MIX...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER THREAT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT WILL
LIKELY MODIFY AS TIME GOES ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO GIVE A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CLEVELAND WEST INTO THE ISLANDS. SO
WILL HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD
DIMINISH BEFORE THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA HEDGE
ROOM IN CASE THE WINDS HOLD UP. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO
STRONG ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 191937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS
WILL BE AROUND IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IN THE WEST LATE. IT
SHOULD BE THIN. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE LOWS TONIGHT...THE WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER ON TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
SOME CIRRUS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...NO JET DYNAMICS TO HELP
ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...COULD BE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. WE WILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE...DEFINITELY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

SOME CIRRUS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE...SO JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD APPROACH
10C. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING AT FIRST AND THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS RUN OF THE MODELS
ARE COLDER AND ARE INDICATING THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING THIS...WILL
NOT MENTION A MIX...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER THREAT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT WILL
LIKELY MODIFY AS TIME GOES ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO GIVE A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CLEVELAND WEST INTO THE ISLANDS. SO
WILL HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD
DIMINISH BEFORE THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA HEDGE
ROOM IN CASE THE WINDS HOLD UP. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO
STRONG ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 191707
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON METARS AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 191642
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON MTR`S AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 191338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS IF
FAIRLY DRY...HOWEVER...SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW...IT SHOULD NOT BECOME THAT WIDESPREAD...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL
HANDLE IT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGE AT
THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 191124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 AM UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 191017
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARMUP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK









000
FXUS61 KCLE 190743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARMUP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 190548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. I WILL ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 190122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. I WILL ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THEY DEVELOP IT
WILL BE FROM AROUND 05Z THROUGH MAYBE 11Z. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO
ALIGN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THEY DEVELOP IT
WILL BE FROM AROUND 05Z THROUGH MAYBE 11Z. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182211
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
611 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO
ALIGN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181948
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND
THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. SOME CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN TOL AND CLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS
HAVE QPF...OTHERS ARE DRY. BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE
PICTURES WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES WEST OF CLE. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
HIGHS UP WITH THE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181625
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND
THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. SOME CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN TOL AND CLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS
HAVE QPF...OTHERS ARE DRY. BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE
PICTURES WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES WEST OF CLE. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
HIGHS UP WITH THE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED THE
POPS OVER NW OH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181022
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180638
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
238 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND INDIANA. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND AT
SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM AND AM
EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180505
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180113
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 172335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL
JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 172208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL
JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS











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