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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 042003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50`S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 042003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50`S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 041028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 040157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 040157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 032233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AND IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUN BEGINS TO DROP
IN THE SKY. PRECIPITATION HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND I
THINK WE SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS
EARLY GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EXTREME WEST OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HAVE KEPT THE
LAKESHORE DRY. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NIL SO WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HAVE KEPT THE
LAKESHORE DRY. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NIL SO WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HAVE KEPT THE
LAKESHORE DRY. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NIL SO WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HAVE KEPT THE
LAKESHORE DRY. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NIL SO WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-2 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.






STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.






STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031642
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.






STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 031007
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031007
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FACT COMBINED WITH HOW
WEAK THE HIGH IS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
TO TAKE PLACE FOR SOME SHRA TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY. WILL PUT CHC POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND BEEF UP THE CLOUD COVER MORE.
AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE BUT STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGHS SHOULD RUN 75 TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS COULD HOLD UP ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030458
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030458
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS FROM KMFD TO KYNG. ALSO COULD SEE ISOLATED MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
852 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
852 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
852 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 030052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
852 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS MID EVENING
UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEST OF LPR/BJJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 022348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
507 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
507 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
507 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPEADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021641
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPEADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021422
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021422
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD
PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END ANY THREAT FOR SHRA
THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD
PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END ANY THREAT FOR SHRA
THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
COULD HELP MITIGATE FOR/STRATUS POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BY MORNING SO DID BRING IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG/STRATUS
BURNOFF FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 021011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD
PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END ANY THREAT FOR SHRA
THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
COULD HELP MITIGATE FOR/STRATUS POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BY MORNING SO DID BRING IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG/STRATUS
BURNOFF FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020708
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE SNOWBELT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA AROUND THE SNOWBELT SO
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NW SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END
ANY THREAT FOR SHRA THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
COULD HELP MITIGATE FOR/STRATUS POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BY MORNING SO DID BRING IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG/STRATUS
BURNOFF FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 020708
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE SNOWBELT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA AROUND THE SNOWBELT SO
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NW SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END
ANY THREAT FOR SHRA THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
COULD HELP MITIGATE FOR/STRATUS POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BY MORNING SO DID BRING IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG/STRATUS
BURNOFF FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020708
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE SNOWBELT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA AROUND THE SNOWBELT SO
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NW SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END
ANY THREAT FOR SHRA THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
COULD HELP MITIGATE FOR/STRATUS POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BY MORNING SO DID BRING IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG/STRATUS
BURNOFF FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





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